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The staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Another day, another poll, this one showing Buckhorn ahead



TAMPA — The day after the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce released a poll showing Rose Ferlita in the lead, Bob Buckhorn’s campaign is celebrating a poll showing just the opposite.

Buckhorn leads Ferlita 44 to 38 percent, with 18 percent undecided, according to the telephone survey of 300 likely city voters by Frederick Polls of Arlington, Va.

The poll was done from Thursday through Sunday for the Buckhorn campaign and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent.

The poll shows Buckhorn and Ferlita splitting the vote evenly in two areas: South Tampa voters and followers of Dick Greco. South Tampa’s higher-than-average turnout increasingly plays a critical role in determining the outcome of Tampa’s elections.

Elsewhere in the city, the poll showed Buckhorn leading by 8 points in West Tampa, 6 points in northern and New Tampa and 38 points in downtown and largely black East Tampa.

It also showed Buckhorn with unspecified “large leads,” according to his campaign, among voters who supported Thomas Scott and Ed Turanchik in the March 1 primary election.

In what is officially a non-partisan race, the poll suggests that Democrat Buckhorn and Republican Ferlita enjoy the support of most registered voters from their own parties. Democrats favored Buckhorn 52 to 29 percent. Republicans supported Ferlita 54 to 35 percent. Independents split 33 to 29 percent in Buckhorn’s favor.

Party registration of undecided voters was nearly 3-to-1 Democrat over Republican, according to the pollster, which Buckhorn’s campaign welcomed as a good omen.

On Wednesday, the chamber poll showed Ferlita 10 points ahead of Buckhorn, 43 percent to 33 percent among likely city voters, with 24 percent undecided.

Hamilton Campaigns, which generally works for Democrats, surveyed 300 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the runoff. The poll was conducted March 2-6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percent.

[Last modified: Thursday, March 10, 2011 11:37am]


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