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The staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Post recession: "American Dream" takes a hit in Florida, among older millennials



How much has the housing market changed since the Great Recession?

Quite a bit, according to an analysis by Mark Uh, a data scientist at the real estate blog Trulia.

Of the 50 largest metro regions, Tampa had the fifth largest climb in the percentage of renters from 2006 to 2014. Here are the top 10:

1) Las Vegas, +9.9 percent, 39.5 percent of residents to 49.4 percent

2) Phoenix, +9.2 percent, 31.4 percent to 40.6 percent

3) Fort Lauderdale, +8.3 percent, 29.4 percent to 37.7 percent

4) West Palm Beach, +7.8 percent, 24.8 percent to 32.6 percent

5) Tampa, +7.5 percent, 29.4 percent to 36.9 percent

6) Miami, +7.2 percent, 40.0 percent to 47.2 percent

7) Detroit, +7.1 percent, 31.3 percent to 38.4 percent

8) Warren, MICH., + 6.7 percent, 21.1 percent to 27.8 percent

9) Oakland, +6.7 percent, 36.5 percent to 43.2 percent

10) Riverside-San Bernandino, +6.5 percent, 32.3 percent to 38.8 percent

Florida had the most cities in the top 10, with four. Orlando logged in at No. 12 with a 6.1 percent increase in renters (from 33.3 percent to 39.5 percent). No other state comes close to Florida's five out the top 12. Next closest is Michigan and California with two each.

Jacksonville ranked No. 23 in the increase in the percentage of renters, but had the highest increase in the nation of percent of income spent on rent from 2006 to 2014, with 4 percent. Jacksonville renters spent 28.3 percent of their income on rent in 2006, but 32.3 percent in 2014. Tampa renters paid the same share of their income, 31.2 percent, both years. The median rent in Tampa did climb from $760 a month to $938, a 17.7 percent increase, but 37 other cities had rents increase higher. (San Jose's Silicon Valley saw median rents increase by 42.6 percent).   

Uh used the U.S. Census' American Community Survey data from 2006 to 2014 to study how the housing market has shifted to more rentals. He broke down the numbers in many different ways.

-- Older millennials (young adults from 26 to 34), which are part of the age group that historically takes the plunge into first-time home buying, have been unable to make the leap from renters to homeowners. Overall, the percentage of U.S. renters between 18 to 34 climbed from 62.5 percent in 2006 to 71.6 percent in 2014.  But those in the 26-34 age group saw a jump of 10.9 percent, which was nearly double the 5.9 percent jump in renting from those in the 18-25 group. 

-- Gen X'ers saw their homeownership decline. Renters jumped from 33 percent in 2006 to 40.7 percent in 2014. "We suspect that many in this age segment lost their jobs during the crisis. As a result, they were subsequently forced out of their homes via foreclosure, and were forced to enter the rental market."

-- Baby boomers numbers stayed the most steady. Renters increased from 24.4 percent in 2006 to 27 percent in 2014. 

-- Although a greater proportion of women rent (44 percent to 38.1 percent for men), the percentage of men renting jumped by 6.4 percent compared to only 2.6 percent for women. That could reflect "head of households," Uh noted, where both a man and woman reside. But households led by women tend to be renters. 

-- Minority homeownership takes the biggest dive. Hispanics saw the percentage of renters jump post-crisis by 8.7 percent.

-- The poorest households had the biggest increase in the percentage of income spent on paying rent, an increase of 6.8 percentage points, followed by 2.6 percentage points for lower-middle class households. But rental rates did increase for those considerably for those in the top (5 percent) and upper-middle income brackets (6.3 percent).

For more breakdowns, click here.  



[Last modified: Monday, February 15, 2016 11:18am]


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