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Bucs defense vs. Matt Ryan: What to expect tonight

Atlanta's QB has the four highest-rated games of his career against Tampa Bay's defense.
 
Published Dec. 18, 2017|Updated Dec. 18, 2017

Atlanta and Matt Ryan are in town to face the Bucs on Monday Night Football, so it's a chance to revisit a quarterback Tampa Bay knows well, with 19 meetings over the past 10 seasons. A couple of talking points for tonight's game and the challenge ahead for the Bucs defense:

1. Ryan plays his best games against the Bucs.

Over his career, Ryan has more touchdown passes against the Saints (31) and Panthers (30) than he does the Bucs (29), but for individual games, the four highest-rated performances of his 155-game career are all against the Bucs.

Forget about three weeks ago — not even close. He had a 155.9 rating in that Thursday 56-14 rout three years ago, a 148.4 in 2013, a 146.3 in 2011 and a 144.7 in last year's win against the Bucs, with a combined 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions in those games.

2. Ryan isn't nearly as dominant against the Bucs in Tampa.

You'd expect this — everybody's better at home. But Ryan has markedly better numbers against the Bucs in his home games than he does in Tampa. He's 7-3 at home and 5-4 on the road, but he has just 14 TDs vs. 11 INTs at Raymond James Stadium, and a ridiculous 15 TDs vs. 3 INTs in Atlanta. What's more, he had two picks as a rookie at home against the Bucs, so since 2009, he has 15 TDs and one INT in home games vs. the Bucs.

So if he's vulnerable, it's definitely in Tampa, and speaking of which …

3. He's alternated wins and losses in Tampa for seven straight years.

Like patterns? For seven years in a row, Ryan and the Falcons have alternated win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win in Tampa. Last season? Amazing, throwing for 328 yards and four touchdowns in a 43-28 win. Two years ago? Not so much so, throwing just one TD in 45 pass attempts in a 23-19 Bucs win. Which brings us to …

4. More Ryan passes are a good thing for the Bucs.

Same is true for most quarterbacks — if they're throwing a ton of passes, it means they were trailing and had to throw to try to win. So for Ryan, in his career against the Bucs, he's 0-5 when he attempts 36 passes or more, and he's 12-2 when he throws it 35 times or fewer.

Ryan plays well on Monday Night Football — he's 4-6 for his career, but he's thrown at least two TD passes in his last seven MNF games.

5. He's still down considerably from his MVP season last year.

Ryan had an amazing 2016 season: 38 TDs, just seven INTs for a phenomenal 117.1 QB rating for the entire season. With a new offensive coordinator, his numbers are considerably down — he has just 17 TD passes in 13 games, on pace to match his lowest total since his rookie year in 2008. He already has 11 INTs, and his yardage is on pace to be his lowest since 2010.

What's more, he's coming off his worst game of 2017 — three INTs against the Saints last week. He had totaled just two INTs in the previous seven games combined, but again, the Bucs defense isn't the Saints defense. And Atlanta still beat New Orleans.

Ryan's never thrown three INTs against the Bucs, in 19 career meetings. Pull that off as a defense, and it's still a coin flip — he's 4-5 all-time when he throws three or more interceptions. He's thrown three in a game twice this season, and Atlanta won both games, beating the Lions and the Saints.