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A college football recruit with every major offer is most likely to attend ... Stanford?

Stanford offered only 83 prospects in its 2016 class, according to 247Sports. Of those 83, 25 signed with the Cardinal.

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Stanford offered only 83 prospects in its 2016 class, according to 247Sports. Of those 83, 25 signed with the Cardinal.

26

January

With national signing day approaching, players across the country are weighing offers to determine where they'll play college football.

With that in mind, here's a kind of weird question: Which offer is the best?

Or, put another way: If a hypothetical recruit has offers from every school in the country, where (statistically) is he most likely to land?

Fortunately, 247Sports keeps track of almost every offer and commitment to help come up with an answer (at least for the 2016 recruiting class).

Stanford.

The Cardinal offered only 83 prospects in that class, according to 247Sports. Of those 83, 25 signed with Stanford. That figure (30.1 percent) is by far the highest among Power Five programs.

We'll pause here for some caveats: Offers are tricky. Sometimes they're not committable. Sometimes recruits say they have an offer when they really don't. Sometimes those offers disappear, and coaching changes mess with them, too. Programs' class sizes change annually based on their needs, so offers do, too. If we ran the numbers next week for the 2017 class, they'd be different. 

While these numbers aren't perfect, they're a decent window into which programs are most desirable, or most efficient at landing recruits.

Texas was second - it landed 23 percent of its offers. No surprise there; the Longhorns traditionally have their pick of players in Texas (even if Texas A&M has changed that since joining the SEC). Oklahoma State (18.8 percent) was third, followed by Utah and Kansas State (17.4 each) and Northwestern (17.2).

Private schools were more efficient than public ones. TCU (15.8) and USC (15.7) and Baylor (15.6) were all in the top nine, along with the Wildcats and Cardinal. Notre Dame (12.2) was also above average. That's not a surprise, either; schools with higher academic standards can't offer as many recruits.

Last among Power Five programs, at least in 2016? Miami. The Hurricanes offered 336 players to get 19 (5.7 percent). Some of that probably stems from the coaching change.

Florida State (14.4) was tied with Oregon for 14th. The Gators were 39th (10.9, which is a bit lower than the Power Five average of 11.8). They're not Power Five programs, but UCF (10.3) was ahead of USF (7.4). 

Here's the full list (again, using 247Sports' numbers):

Stanford 30.1%
Texas 22.8%
Oklahoma State 18.8%
Utah 17.4%
Kansas State 17.4%
Northwestern 17.2%
TCU 15.8%
USC 15.7%
Baylor 15.6%
Texas Tech 15.6%
Texas A&M 15.3%
LSU 15.2%
UCLA 14.8%
Oregon 14.4%
Florida State 14.4%
Washington State 14.3%
Georgia Tech 13.7%
Ohio State 13.6%
Arizona 13.5%
Minnesota 13.5%
Iowa State 13.3%
Washington 13.2%
Arkansas 12.9%
Clemson 12.7%
Oregon State 12.6%
Notre Dame 12.2%
Michigan 12.0%
Auburn 11.9%
Virginia 11.6%
West Virginia 11.5%
Cal 11.4%
Purdue 11.4%
Iowa 11.3%
Penn State 11.2%
Virginia Tech 11.2%
South Carolina 11.2%
Duke 11.1%
Michigan State 11.0%
Florida 10.9%
Ole Miss 10.9%
Georgia 10.8%
Oklahoma 10.4%
UCF 10.3%
Colorado 10.3%
Maryland 10.2%
Kansas 9.7%
Wisconsin 9.7%
NC State 9.5%
Pitt 9.5%
Syracuse 9.5%
Rutgers 9.4%
Alabama 9.0%
Illinois 9.0%
Kentucky 8.8%
UNC 8.7%
Wake Forest 8.4%
Vanderbilt 8.3%
Nebraska 8.2%
Mizzou 8.0%
Arizona State 8.0%
Boston College 7.9%
USF 7.4%
Tennessee 7.3%
Indiana 7.2%
Louisville 6.8%
Mississippi State 6.6%
Miami 5.7%

[Last modified: Thursday, January 26, 2017 11:32am]

    

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