The death march to the 80th annual Academy Awards on Feb. 22 has begun, with the traditional year-end flood of critics' balloting and lesser organizations doling out nominations and awards. The academy is always last in the parade but its grandest participant. Everything else is just fodder for discussion about who'll win the most coveted movie prizes of all.

Of course, we don't know who'll be in contention yet. Oscar nomination ballots are being mailed to members today, and are due back to the academy by 5 p.m. PT on Jan. 12. Nominations will be announced 10 days later, when the hype fun begins in earnest.

That doesn't prevent movie hounds from sorting through available clues in the interim. You can impress your friends and neighbors by backing the right horses early. Here are a few tips from an experienced handicapper:

First, pay little attention to critics group balloting, which can become compromised decisions among stubborn minds. Also ignore the Golden Globes (because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association nominates according to the best party invite list possible) and the Spirit Awards (which is the opposite of the Golden Globes; honoring people not famous enough to be invited anywhere, for movies that don't make for pleasant nights boasting/sharing screener dvds with friends).

If anything, look to the nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards when handicapping the Oscars. After all, actors comprise the largest voting branch of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences (nearly 2,000 out of 5,810 voting members).

Follow me here: Oscar nominations are determined by each branch voting for its specialty (actors nominate actors, screenwriters nominate screenwriters, and so on). The entire membership votes for all categories on the final ballot, giving actors the chances to swing decisions by sheer numbers.

The SAG awards are entirely decided by actors, so it makes sense that what actors lean toward in their nominations closely correlate with Oscar nominations for acting. It isn't foolproof but darn close.

And when you see SAG nominations for deserving but relatively unknown performances like Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, Melissa Leo in Frozen River and Dev Patel in Slumdog Millionaire, that means they immediately count in preliminary Oscar talk. And shouted loudly if they happen to win on January 25 when the SAG awards are presented.

But SAG's influence doesn't end there. The SAG award for best ensemble cast in a motion picture also becomes a solid barometer for the best picture Academy Award. Recent honorees include future Oscar winners (No Country for Old Men, Chicago) and nominees embraced as dark horses (Little Miss Sunshine, Sideways). The SAG ensemble award also predicted the past decade's most stunning upsets: Shakespeare in Love (over Saving Private Ryan) and Crash (over Brokeback Mountain and Capote).

That trend appears to give 2008's inside track to a best picture Oscar to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon and Milk -- this year's ensemble cast nominees.

Beyond that, guessing what Oscar voters will do becomes a game of dominoes with muddled tea leaves for refreshments. Golden Globe final results may slightly influence voters, but don't tell that to Dreamgirls, which couldn't parlay Golden Globes respect into a major Oscar nomination for anything except Eddie Murphy (who blew his chances with Norbit when balloting was going on). A lot of bad decisions in release strategies -- too late, too narrow, too bad -- and ad campaigns can still happen.

It just wouldn't be Hollywood without them.

[AP photo]