Rays RF Delmon Young would be something of a surprise if he wins the the AL Rookie of the Year award that will be announced shortly after 2 today.
Young had a strong season for the Rays, but the popular opinion among most observers is that Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia will be the winner. Baltimore pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City pitcher Brian Bannister and Boston pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki OKajima are also candidates.
Pedroia certainly raised his profile during the Red Sox's championship run, but there are two things to remember in this award process:
First , the voting done by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America is based on regular season performance. The ballots for all the BBWAA awards, in fact, are required to be cast before the start of the playoffs. And up until his not-running-out-a-ground-ball incident the final weekend in Toronto, Young had a very solid and controversy-free season that was sure to catch the attention of some voters.
Secondly, the winner is chosen based on ballots fron two voters in each of the 14 AL cities. So even if there is "Northeast" or big-market bias for Pedroia, there are only two Boston writers who vote, two New York writers, two Tampa Bay writers, etc.
As for the "experts," most seem to think Pedroia will win. Among ESPN's 20 baseball contributors, 16 pick Pedroia. Keith Law doesn't have Young in his top three, picking Guthrie, Pedroia, Bannister. Buster Olney picks Pedroia.
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