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What’s in the way of the Rays’ rebuild

 
Published Aug. 13, 2018|Updated Aug. 14, 2018

So here's the good news.

The Rays are 60-58 after taking two out of three in Toronto. Their so-called "tanking'' plan isn't really a total tank job after all. Call it a rebuilding project, and this rebuilding project looks way ahead of schedule. Not only do the Rays appear on the verge of another good run of winning seasons, you could make the case they already are pretty good. They're two games over .500. Pretty impressive, especially after a 1-8 start.

Now the bad news: Does any of this even matter?

Because as hard as the Rays are running, it looks like they will keep smacking into a massive wall being built by the Red Sox and Yankees — the two heavyweights the Rays will play over the next week.

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The Rays are having a terrific season and yet they woke up Monday morning 24 games — 24! — behind the white-hot Red Sox, who lead the AL East and could end up winning more games than any club in major-league history.

The Rays also are 14 1/2 games behind the second-place Yankees as the two teams prepare to start a three-game series Tuesday night in the Bronx.

And the depressing part for the Rays is it doesn't look as if the Red Sox and Yankees are going to be fading anytime soon.

Look at Boston.

With apologies to Mike Trout, Mookie Betts is my choice for the best player in baseball. He's 25. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts also is 25. Andrew Benintendi is, all of a sudden, a sensational player. He's 23. Jackie Bradley is 28. Even veteran J.D. Martinez, who was picked up before the season and already has 37 homers and 103 RBIs, is only 30.

As far as pitching, imagine this: David Price is the old man of the staff and he's only 32. Ace Chris Sale and 14-game winner Rick Porcello aren't even 30 yet.

Now look at the Yankees.

Aaron Judge looks like he's going to be a 500-homer guy. He's 26. Didi Gregorius, who has more than replaced Derek Jeter, is one of the best shortstops in baseball. He's 28.

New York landed a big trophy fish in the offseason by trading for the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton, who is still adjusting to being a Yankee and yet he is still on pace for 42-homer, 105-RBI season. He is only 28.

Their starting rotation is anchored by two outstanding pitchers who are 25 (Luis Severino) and 29 (Masahiro Tanaka) and one of the best closers in baseball (Aroldis Chapman), who is just 30.

So the point of all this?

The Rays are young and good. But the Red Sox and Yankees are young, too. And they are better than Tampa Bay. Plus, both the Red Sox and Yankees have massive bank accounts to not only go out and fill whatever holes they have, but to keep the stars they have developed.

Don't be surprised if those teams are in the running for the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and every other big-name free agent next offseason. And in every offseason.

Now this isn't to say the Rays' task is impossible. The Rays could be a playoff contender in the coming years. In fact, we've seen it. From 2008 to 2013, the Rays had six consecutive winning seasons and made the playoffs four times. So it can happen.

But it's an uphill climb.

The window typically doesn't last long for small-market teams. Maybe four or five years if you're lucky and everything goes right, including staying healthy and getting career years out of several players.

Here's how the perfect storm works: a team is bad, builds through the draft and trades for prospects, develops its young talent, then goes a little run. In recent years, we've seen teams such as the Moneyball A's, Pirates, Twins, Royals and Orioles put together competitive clubs. They come and then they go.

Well, here come the Rays.

They are building the best way they can. They are building the only way they can. They've done some nice drafting. They've made some nice trades. They've developed some nice talent.

But they can't spend like the Red Sox. They can't write checks like the Yankees. They have to rely on their baseball smarts and then hope it all pans out.

They can only hope for the best.

But even their best might not be good enough when it comes to going up against the Red Sox and Yankees.

Contact Tom Jones at tjones@tampabay.com. Follow @tomwjones.