Kos envisions Charlie Crist pulling an Arlen Specter and saving his bacon by switching to Democratic party - and would be fine with that: I predict that by the end of the year (or end of Q1 2010 at the latest), the polls in that Republican primary will be tied.

So the question will then be - at what point will Crist realize that he's in deep s---? It took collapsing poll numbers for Specter to hit the "panic!" button and switch parties. That's probably what it'll take for Crist to realize his problems, and when he does, he'll have a tough call to make: go down with his party, or pull a Specter and ditch it for better electoral prospects on a different line. That could mean a switch to the Democratic Party where he'd likely be no worse than the other senator from Florida, Bill Nelson - a marginally good Democrat, a step up from Landrieu, Nebraska's Nelson, and the Wal-Mart Twins (and no better).

Not sure Kos fully appreciates what kind of campaigner - and fundraiser - Crist is, or his ability to define and drown an opponent who poses a serious threat. Charlie ain't Arlen.

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