Two Miami Republican representatives running for Senate. Two rival polls. Two
results. One conclusion: David Rivera leads Anitere Flores in the Republican
race for District 38.

But by how much does he lead?

Rivera's poll of 300 likely voters, conducted by FIU pollster Dario Mareno,
shows Rivera leads Flores 34% to 15% and leads her among every demographic.
Since posting this, we've gotten three emails noting that Mareno contributed
$250 to Rivera's campaign.

Flores' poll of 300 voters, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows a
Rivera with just a 3-point lead (25% to 22%). That's well within the poll's 5.6%
margin of error. Also, the poll says that Flores leads Rivera 45% to 28% among
those who know both candidates. Note: the error margin for this subset is far
higher.

Flores reported a $150k haul in the last quarter. No word yet on how much
Rivera raised, though conventional wisdom suggests he raised more.

-- Marc Caputo