Newly independent Gov. Charlie Crist is besting former Republican House
Speaker Marco Rubio in Florida's U.S. Senate race by a 37-32 margin, according
to Quinnipiac University's latest poll. Democrat Jeff Greene, the new
frontrunner in his party's race, gets 17 percent of the vote. If Democrat
Kendrick Meek bests Greene in the Aug. 24 primary, he would get just 13 percent
of the general election vote. In that case, Crist's lead reaches 39 percent.

Those numbers reveal that Crist's success hinges in good measure on
Democratic voters. But we didn't need a poll to show us that. The turncoat
Republican has scrubbed his website and campaign-trail talk of red meat
conservatism.

In the race for governor, state Chief Financial Officer Alex
Sink slightly trails the Republican nominee, whether it's frontrunner Rick Scott
or Attorney General Bill McCollum, who are busy stripping in the bark off each
other in a vicious multi-million dollar attack ad war. Thanks to the
mud-slinging that has damaged both her potential GOP rivals, Sink's position
has improved. But she still trails Scott 27-29 and is behind McCollum by a 26-27
percent margin. That's all well within the poll's 3.2 percentage point margin of
error. So it's effectively a tie.

The gov race wildcard: former Democrat and son of the last
Democratic Gov., Lawton Chiles. Bud Chiles garners 14 percent of the vote in the
poll.

An intriguing side note to the poll: the approval ratings for Crist's Senate
appointee George LeMieux, whose approval ratings are upside down. Voters
disapprove of the job he's doing by a 25-21 percent margin. Just why is unclear.
LeMieux is little known, and he's done little to distinguish himself by going
along to get along in Washington. But Democrat Bill Nelson, whom LeMieux might
run against in two years, gets a 46-30 job approval rating, despite the fact
that the electorate is shifting rightward.

President Obama is upside down, with 46 percent approving of his job and 50
percent disapproving.

Crist's approval ratings are positive: 53-37 -- a big factor in his lead,
along with his high name identification numbers.

"Gov. Charlie Crist’s small lead comes as neither Democrat breaks 20 percent
in the trial heats.  If that were to be the case in November, Gov. Crist would
have a very good chance to win.  But if the Democratic nominee can move into the
mid-to-high 20s, Crist’s chances decrease substantially,” said Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.