The Democratic candidate in the competitive open-seat race to succeed
Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Bartow, released a poll today that showed her
leading the three-way field, but she's within the poll's margin of
error, meaning it's no better for her than a tight race.

According to the poll, Lori Edwards, the Democratic primary frontrunner, leads
likely Republican nominee Dennis Ross, 35 percent-32 percent, with Tea
Party candidate Randy Wilkinson snaring 20 percent of the vote. The poll
was conducted for the Edwards campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research, a Democratic firm. It surveyed 400 likely voters in late July
and had an error margin of 4.9 points.

A big grain of salt is
warranted, since a Democratic firm conducted the poll; because Edwards'
lead is within the margin of error, meaning that Ross might actually be
ahead; and because she barely scored more than one-third of the vote.

On
the other hand, the poll only queried likely voters. Usually, this
means counting only the most energized voters, which this year tend to
be Republicans. If Edwards can lead a poll in such an environment, it
could be a more meaningful result than if the poll had asked all
registered voters. A memo released by the campaign did not indicate
whether the firm also did a broader poll of registered voters. If so,
the campaign didn't release those numbers.

National and local
political experts have been considering the contest to be one of two
Democratic pickup opportunities in Florida, though as we reported recently,
the contest has been a quiet affair so far, with few high-profile
candidate appearances, little advertising and modest fundraising totals
for all of the leading candidates. The Buzz considers the race
to be one of the six most competitive U.S. House seats in the state,
though in the most recent iteration, it was ranked sixth in the
likelihood to flip parties.

Even making a close race at this
point in a rural, Republican-held district would be something of a
victory for Democrats, considering the strong tide against their party
nationally. But the poll suggests that if the contest is close, it's due
to Wilkinson, the Tea Party candidate -- a potential nightmare for Republicans not just in this district, but in many across the United States.

Adding Ross' and
Wilkinson's totals together would amount to nearly an outright majority of the
vote even when "don't know" responses are counted. Wilkinson was specifically identified in the poll question as the
Tea Party candidate, which, given the movement's popularity among
Republicans these days, may have ensured a high score.

Wilkinson
lags in fundraising, and his official Tea Party ballot line has been
attacked by rival Tea Party groups. But he is a three-time elected
county official, unlike many of his peers in the anti-incumbent
movement, and that means he has a longstanding relationship, and high
name identification, with voters in the district. This could give him
some clout in the race -- if not enough votes to win, than at least
enough to potentially shift the outcome.

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