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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Computer model: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by nearly 90,000 votes



You should check out -- the very cool model of the ongoing vote in Florida's presidential and U.S. Senate race created by the smart folks at the Democratic consulting firm CATECOMM of Tallahassee and big data firm PROXEME of Orlando.  As Oct. 31, it estimates that Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by nearly 90,000 votes in Florida and Marco Rubio was leading Patrick Murphy by about 200,000.

On the presidential side, the trend is heading toward a Trump win in Florida --- if he can make up a fair amount of loss ground over the coming week.

"There are reasons for both campaigns to be optimistic," said Democrat Kevin Cate, " but like in any college football game you''d rather be ahead than behind. Trump has to get very close to a majority of the remaining votes to win."

The model basically factors the pre-election day votes cast every day with the RealClearPolitics average of recent Florida polls on those days.It does not take into account the daily, partisan breakdown of votes cast, though the polls should factor in early votes.

These guys are sure to get citicized and picked apart, but it takes guts and a good deal of work to produce FloridaTurnout, and its findings are less susceptible to spin than analyses of daily early and mail voting returns, which we also can't get enough of.

[Last modified: Tuesday, November 1, 2016 8:32pm]


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