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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

2 Polls show neck and neck race



Obama 47, McCain 45, according to an Oct. 22-26 Quinnipiac University poll  moe +/- 2.6^. (full detail here). John McCain can find a bright spot: A Q poll on Oct. 23 had Obama up 49-44.But among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 – 34 percent.

"Sen. McCain has made up some ground in the last week among white voters, especially in Florida where the race remains close," says pollster Peter Brown. "To win the election, he has to dominate the white vote and Sen. Obama is keeping it close enough there to maintain his slightly smaller lead."

AP/GFK 10/22-26 poll (moe +/-4): Obama 45, McCain 43: "Fewer than three in 10 think McCain will win the election. Men prefer McCain by 15 points, women back Obama by about the same amount. People under age 35 back Obama by more than two-to-one, while those age 35 and up lean slightly toward McCain. White men prefer McCain by about two-to-one, while white women are split. Asked about characteristics of minorities, 13 percent of white Democrats in the state said blacks are "violent," making it one of three states in the poll where that answer exceeded 10 percent. Twelve percent of the state's white Democrats are voting for McCain. Independents back Obama by 10 percentage points. Obama is ahead by 7 points with those who say they've already voted."

More Quinnipiac: Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 – 44 percent.  Women back Obama 50 – 42 percent.  The Republican leads 53 – 40 percent among white voters, 72 – 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 – 42 percent among Catholics.  The Democrat leads 75 – 20 percent among Jews and 56 – 39 percent among voters 18 – 34 years old.  Voters 35 to 54 split 46 – 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama.

Independent voters back Obama 47 – 39 percent.

By a 53 – 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 55 – 38 percent for McCain. 

Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a 44 – 41 percent favorability.

Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 – 29 percent favorability.

The economy is the most important election issue, 59 percent of Florida voters say.

“The reason Sen. McCain is doing better in Florida than some other key states is his strength among white voters without college degrees. He leads Sen. Obama by 18 points among that group in Florida, but is neck and neck with him among such voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Brown said.

[Last modified: Tuesday, September 14, 2010 4:41pm]


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