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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Of 4.3-mil votes cast in Fla so far Dems have cast 133k more than GOPers

4

November

More than 4.3 million Florida votes are already in before Election Day and Democrats used the last full official day of in-person early voting to extend their lead over Republican ballots cast by 133,000, according to this morning's figures.

In all, about 36 percent of registered voters have cast ballots and about 48 of likely voters have.

That means wait times at polling stations on Election Day will be much shorter than the early vote wait times that have plagued South Florida for the past eight days. Tens of thousands of more early votes, by way of absentee ballots, are still flowing in and a few thousand (but not tens of thousands) more will come by way of in-person absentee ballots cast at some election supervisors' offices in select counties, such as Miami Dade (more here on that).

Early voting was shortened in 2012 compared to 2008, and the numbers are smaller.

 According to George Mason University's United States Elections Project (which tracks early voting) about 2.6 million in-person early votes were cast in 2008 over 14 days in Florida. This year, after the GOP-led Legislature and Republican Gov. Rick Scott cut the days to eight, it's 2.3 million. But absentee ballot voting is stronger. In 2008, 1.7 million cast absentee ballots and this year the number is 2 million.

Guess which type of voting Republicans specialize in? Absentee ballots. Democrats do better at in-person early voting. Though more fraud-prone, absentee ballot voting wasn't touched in the election law Scott signed that shortened early voting days.

In all, Republicans have cast 87,000 more absentee ballots than Democrats. Democrats have cast 220,000 more in-person early votes.
Using the GMU numbers (and there are other numbers that differ from them), Democrats had a cumulative lead as high as 363,000 ballots in 2008, or about 8 percentage points. Now, that Democrat lead has been cut to 3 points, or 133,000 -- and not just because of the shortened early voting period.

There's a sense of diminished Democratic enthusiasm for the president compared to 2008. And the Democrats actually lost more voters between 2008 and 2012 than Republicans and the Democratic Party grew at a slower pace (this was before Scott's voter bill was signed in 2011). Our latest analysis of those 2008 voters who remain on the rolls now shows the Democrat early ballot/pre-Election Day lead would be only 282,000 if the presidential election four years ago were held with the current electorate.

Also of note: a Tampa Bay Times poll indicated Romney gets more crossover votes than Obama and is winning the early vote anyway.
Here are today's numbers for early votes:

Party            EV total           %
DEM         1,052,061 46%
REP            831,456 36%
IND            414,889 18%
Total         2,298,406


Absentee votes:
Party           AB Total            %
REP            871,239 43%
DEM            784,117 39%
IND            355,824 18%
Total         2,011,180


Cumulative EVAB totals
Party         EVAB total           %
DEM         1,836,178 43%
REP         1,702,695 40%
IND            770,713 18%
Total         4,309,586

--Marc Caputo

[Last modified: Sunday, November 4, 2012 5:06pm]

    

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