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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Fla GOP scoffs at Santorum holding out hope for Fla delegates

5

April

Here's the memo released by Rick Santorum's delegate director John Yob (who also happens to be a senior strategist on the Mike McCalister U.S. Senate campaign in Florida:

To:                          Mike Biundo
From:                    John Yob
Date:                     April 5, 2012
Re:                         Delegate Math
 
 
The Media’s Delegate Math is Wrong
 
There are a couple of fundamental flaws with the delegate counts that the media keeps that reveals that this race is much closer than they report:
 
1)      Florida, Arizona, and quite possibly Puerto Rico will be proportional rather than Winner Take All.  They broke RNC rules by going winner take all before the window and therefore RNC Members and/or the convention will enforce the rules and make the delegations proportional.  This will reduce Romney’s delegate total substantially and increase the other three candidates’ respective delegate totals.
 
2)      National Convention Delegates are elected at County, District, and State conventions rather than by the initial beauty contests in many states.  For example, in Washington State Romney was allocated 25 delegates, Paul 8 delegates, Santorum 7 delegates, and Gingrich 0 delegates.  The Santorum and Paul campaigns are working together in Washington State and the result will be more delegates for Santorum and Paul and a dramatic decrease in delegates for Romney.  Santorum will also over perform in most other states that use this process and Romney will underperform.
 
3)      Unbound delegates – The media continues to put unbound delegates in their counts in the territories and other states.  These folks can change their mind, or have yet to make up their mind, and should not be counted as if they are bound.
 
The REAL Count
Our current internal count that takes into account ongoing county, district, and state conventions is as follows:
 
Romney – 571
Santorum – 342
Newt – 158
Paul - 91
 
Texas is Going Winner Take All
The state of Texas is in the process of announcing that they are going to go Winner Take All rather than proportional.  This will have a dramatic impact on the delegate projections, tighten the race after Santorum wins Texas, and significantly hinder Romney’s capacity to ever get 1144 delegates because he will not get his proportion of the state.  Simply put, this is a Game Changer.  The race is almost even if you account for a Rick Santorum win in Texas under a Winner Take All system, and there is a clear Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich.
 
The Calendar Moves to May
The month of April was always going to be difficult but the calendar gets much more friendly for Rick Santorum in May.  North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas might lead to Santorum winning roughly 7 out of 8 states in May, and heading into the June 5th primaries with a freight train of momentum.
 
Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich
The campaign continues to reach out to Newt Gingrich’s team to work together on County, State, and District conventions to prevent Romney from achieving 1144 and to elect a Conservative Majority of delegates.
 
Conclusion
This race is much closer than the media and Establishment Republicans would like to report and there and events such as Texas are dramatically changing the future landscape in a manner that is positive to Rick Santorum and negative for Mitt Romney.
 
The other campaigns are beginning to work together more closely to prevent Romney from reaching 1144 and it is starting to pay dividends.
 

The month of April was always going to be a difficult month for Rick Santorum but it will still be close enough so that when he wins the conservative states in the month of May the race will be approximately even going into the Republican National Convention.

Florida GOP spokesman Brian Hughes said it's "preposterous" to think Florida will change from a winner-take-all state "simply so rick santorum can find some justification for his losing campaign."

He called the theory a "delusional fantasy" and said it amounted to a campaign trying to impose its will on a state party that had already worked through and resolved the issue. "Just as there's a possibility that pigs will fly, there is some possibilitythat months from now there could be some sort of mechanizm to change it. But the reality is we were, are, and will be a winner take all state."

[Last modified: Thursday, April 5, 2012 7:03pm]

    

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