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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Fla Poll: Obama 48%, Romney 43%; Mack 48%, Nelson 42%



Survey USA robo poll:

In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal state of Florida today, 07/20/12, three months till early voting begins, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa. In one school of thought, Mitt Romney cannot capture the White House without Florida's 29 electoral votes.

There is no gender gap in Florida, unlike many other states, but there is a material age gap and race gap: Romney leads by 4 points among voters age 50+; Obama leads by 14 points among voters age 18 to 49. Romney leads 5:4 among white voters, Obama leads 10:1 among black voters.

3 key groups propel Obama today: Hispanics break 5:4 Democrat. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Independents break 4:3 Democrat. Obama leads among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year; Romney leads among voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. Those Floridians voting for Mitt Romney 3:1 prefer Marco Rubio to be Romney's running mate over Condoleezza Rice.

In an election for U.S. Senator from Florida today, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson does not fare as well as fellow Democrat Obama. Republican U.S. House member Connie Mack leads Nelson 48% to 42%, and is positioned for a possible Senate-seat takeaway.

Hispanics, who vote for Democrat Obama by 10 points today, vote for Republican Mack by 12 points, a 22-point difference. Independents, who vote for Democrat Obama by 11 points, vote for Republican Mack by 4 points, a 15-point difference. Middle-income voters, who vote for Democrat Obama by 11 points, vote for Republican Mack by 2 points, a 13-point difference. 9% of Obama voters cross-over and vote Republican in the U.S. Senate contest. These factors combine to tip the balance to Mack.

[Last modified: Saturday, July 21, 2012 10:28am]


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