With qualifying done for federal candidates, it looks like these are Florida's most vulnerable incumbents: Democrat Tim Mahoney, and Republicans Vern Buchanan, Tom Feeney and Ric Keller. Also we’ll keep an eye on three Miami-area seats held by Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart will face, Cuban-American Republicans facing their first strong Democratic challenges in years.

At this point Buzz wouldn't bet heavily against any of these incumbents losing. How competitive most of these races wind up depends on the national climate come fall and what's happening at the top of the ticket. If national Dems had to pick one top target in, our sense is it would be Feeney. Obviously Mahoney is the GOP's sights.