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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

FMA poll: McCollum 44, Scott 40



The Florida Medical Association, a Bill McCollum backer, just released a poll that.... (surprise!) shows McCollum winning. The Tarrance Group, a reputable polling firm, says it sampled 900 voters -- a big number. Here's the memo:

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Florida Medical Association Political Action Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes among likely Republican primary voters in Florida.  These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=900 “likely” Republican primary voters throughout the state.   Responses to this survey were gathered August 10-12, 2010 and the confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is + 3.3%.


?     Bill McCollum has captured the momentum going into the final stretch of the primary and now has a lead over Rick Scott on the primary ballot test.  Forty-four percent (44%) of Republican primary voters indicate that they would vote for McCollum and 40% would vote for Scott.  There are 16% of Republican primary voters that are still undecided on this primary.
?     McCollum now leads on this ballot test among all of the key subgroups that are important for the primary.  McCollum maintains a +14 point lead among seniors, a +5 lead among both very and somewhat conservative voters, a +3 point lead among pro-life voters, and a +7 point lead among those Republicans who intend to vote by absentee.
?     Just as important, McCollum now maintains a significant advantage among those most likely to turn out and vote.  McCollum leads Scott by +6 among those Republicans who are “extremely likely” to vote, and also leads by double digits among those Republicans who are “very interested” in the GOP primary for Governor.
?     McCollum stands with an eleven (+11) point advantage over Scott among Republicans in the crucial “I-4 corridor.”   McCollum leads Scott by +13 points in the Tampa DMA, and also leads by +8 among Republicans in the Orlando DMA.  He also leads Scott by +6 points among Republicans in the Miami DMA.

?     Scott’s negatives have been steadily growing over the past several weeks, and McCollum now has better image ratings among Republican primary voters than Scott does.  Scott’s ability to compete for the remaining undecided vote has grown extremely difficult, as his negatives are now higher than his positive ratings among those Republicans who are undecided on the primary ballot test.

- Marc Caputo, Times/Herald Tallahassee Bureau

[Last modified: Thursday, September 9, 2010 10:19am]


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