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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

How Kendrick Meek plans to win the Senate race

Kendrick Meek reported today that he raised another $1 million in the last quarter and his campaign sent out one of those "internal strategy memos" that make the case for how well positioned it is. It's a decent argument even if campaign manager Abe Dyk makes some questionable assumptions about who will turn out more in an off-year, how much Meek can consolidate Democrats, and how he can beat a billionaire far outspending him. Here's the full memo  and here's an excerpt:

... Kendrick's path to victory is clear. In 2006,Democrat Jim Davis ran against Charlie Crist for governor and received 45 percent of the vote. No one who voted for Davis will vote for Rubio, and it is unrealistic that more than 15 percent of Davis voters would vote for Crist this time – that gives Kendrick 38.25 percent of the vote, enough to win. By contrast, Democrats had a registration disadvantage in voter registration against Republicans in 2006. This year, Democrats have a net 6 percent advantage versus Republicans, growth that will further bolster Kendrick's final vote share. Looked at another way, Kendrick, the only Democrat in the race, can win with only Democrats since they make up 42 percent of the electorate. By consolidating Democratic support in November, Kendrick Meek will be able to win a plurality of votes against two lifelong Republicans. This fall, Floridians will have a real choice. Will they pick the tea party candidate, the self-­interested candidate, or a true Democrat who will fight for middle-­class Florida families?


[Last modified: Thursday, September 9, 2010 10:46am]


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