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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Internal Sink poll shows dead heat

1

October

From an internal polling memo done for the Alex Sink campaign: Polls are coming out almost every day now. We should ignore the public polling and continue to drive home the contrast between Rick Scott, who cannot be trusted, compared to Alex Sink’s history of helping small businesses and her plan to improve the economy and strengthen education.

Our own recent poll results show that we remain in a dead heat with Scott (45% Sink – 44% Scott – 2% someone else – 8% undecided). (1,000 likely voters surveyed from Sept. 23-29, Moe: 3.1%)

We should not react to the public polling, which has fluctuated wildly and has frequently had very glaring demographic errors. For example, recent CNN polling failed to report results for Tampa Bay, the largest market in the state at 25%, or report results for black and Hispanic voters, who will account for over 23% of the electorate. The Quinnipiac poll did not release their election modeling either, but to get the results they show is extremely difficult under any likely voter model.

Alex is viewed as a credible and believable candidate. The national political mood is not to blame for how tight the race is; instead, it is attributable to the over $60 million dollars Scott has spent on television. In the past ten days alone, he has outspent the Sink campaign by $2.6 million dollars.

And here's the Rick Scott campaign's reaction to the recent public polls: Today’s Quinnipiac poll in the Fla Gov race is the third in a week showing Rick Scott taking a lead over Alex Sink, having wiped out her post-primary lead that was bumped even more when Bud Chiles left the race and endorsed Sink.  The three-poll average of these latest likely voter polls (Q-Poll, TIME/CNN and Rasmussen) is actually Scott 48.7% to Sink 44.0%, almost a five point lead with the trend in Scott’s favor.  Coming out of the primary five weeks ago, Sink benefited from a heated battle between Scott and Bill McCollum, and, virtually no attention or focus on her.  Five weeks later, as both the Scott campaign and the media have given her record more scrutiny and as Rick has worked diligently to unite the Republican Party, a clearer picture of this race has begun to emerge.  There is still a month to go, but the trend is definitely with Rick Scott.

[Last modified: Thursday, October 7, 2010 6:32pm]

    

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