Jews swinging Florida to McCain...
So says Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who addressed the Florida GOP delegation this morning: "The reason why I'm reasonably confident about Florida is that we did a poll. I wanted to check on the Jewish vote,'' noting that President Bush won 24 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004. "John McCain is already, even with the undecided still out, John McCain is already over 30 percent of the Jewish vote, and it could go as high as 40 percent, and in Florida it does matter."
Luntz predicted Obama would win former Bush-Cheney states Colorado, New Mexico (14 electoral votes combined), and the two states most likely to decide the election are Ohio and Michigan. "If a candidate wins both those states they win the election,'' Luntz said . "If John McCain loses Ohio he loses the election. If John McCain wins Michigan he wins the election. ... I think Michigan is fed up with the Democratic party.
"Two months ago I would have told you there's no way John McCain could win. Now I would tell you he's got a reasonable chance to win."
Best known as a political wordsmith, Luntz also reminded delegates to be careful about how they describe issues: "It's not tort reform it's lawsuit abuse reform.... It's exploring for energy, not drilling for oil,'' he said. "These words do matter."