Lori Edwards claims advantage in CD 12 race with Dennis Ross
Lori Edwards' campaign for Florida's 12th Congressional district released a poll today boasting she's got the lead "despite the challenging political environment for Democrats going into 2010."
In a recent survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, Edwards holds a 4-point edge over Republican challenger Dennis Ross, 46 – 42 percent. But the poll has a MOE of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
"This poll release smacks of desperation and is just the kind of gutter politics voters are tired of. Even after telling people that Dennis Ross is bought, a crook, and maybe even that he hates puppies, Lori Edwards is still not winning," said campaign manager Fred Piccolo. (UPDATE: Edwards' campaign says the 46-42 spread came before positives and negatives were tested for either candidate)
Edwards, Polk County elections supervisor, and Ross are main combatants in the race to replace U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Bartow, who is running for state agriculture commissioner.
Edwards' name ID could be a boost, however. According to a news release, among those voters who identify both Edwards and Ross, her lead grows to 9 points. Additional talking points from her campaign:
- Edwards can win regardless of the political climate. She runs a net 10 percentage points ahead of a generic Democratic candidate for Congress and outperforms self-identified partisanship by a net 7 points.
- Edwards begins the race with a 2.5:1 favorable to unfavorable ratio. Her standing with seniors is particularly strong, among whom she has a net 17-point favorable to unfavorable rating.
- In a swing district that McCain carried by just one point, this race presents a great opportunity for a Democratic pick-up by a candidate whose profile is in sync with the district. With Lori Edwards the seat is winnable, but it will take an aggressive, well-funded campaign.
This survey of 400 likely November 2010 voters was conducted November 17 – 19, 2009 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The survey is subject to a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.9 percentage points. The sample reflects the demographic composition of the likely 2010 electorate in this district. Party registration is 40 percent Democratic and 41 percent Republican.
Replies Piccolo: "Barack Obama won Virginia and New Jersey in 2008 but lost District 12. If Barack Obama couldn't win district 12 in 2008, Lori Edwards support for the public option and the Pelosi agenda certainly won't win it in 2010. This poll is directed squarely at her controllers in Washington who can see that Lori has generated no support or enthusiasm locally. Dennis Ross is the principled, independent, conservative leader District 12 wants and local donors, petitions, and enthusiasm bear that out clearly. This poll is not worth the paper it is written on."