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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Marco Rubio beating Charlie Crist in latest poll



For the first time, a new poll shows that Gov. Charlie Crist is losing to former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio in Florida's nationally watched Republican U.S. Senate race.

Rubio leads by just 3 percentage points -- 47-44 -- and is well within the error margin of the Quinnipiac University poll. Yet the trend of Rubio's rise and Crist's fall is stark. In October, Crist led 50 – 35 percent. In August, Crist's lead was even bigger (55 – 26) and in June the race looked like Crist would blow out Rubio by 54 – 23 percent. 

 “Who would have thunk it?  A former state lawmaker virtually unknown outside of his South Florida home whose challenge to  an exceedingly popular sitting governor for a U.S. Senate nomination had many insiders scratching their heads.  He enters the race 31 points behind and seven months later sneaks into the lead,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

UPDATE: Crist's initial reaction to the numbers: "I'm going to govern, and my first responsibility is to be the governor of the state of Florida. To work hard for the people every single day. To make sure we're reducing the size of government, that we're living within our means." Asked about his numbers sinking into the danger zone of below 50 percent, Crist said: "We've got a tough economy. These are tough times. For any leader, it's challenging to lead in difficult times, but we're going to keep doing it."   

“And, the horse race numbers are not a fluke.  Rubio also tops Crist on a number of other measurements from registered Republicans, who are the only folks who can vote in the primary," Brown said. "Rubio’s grassroots campaigning among Republican activists around the state clearly has paid off."

But it's not all Rubio's doing. Crist has struggled as the economy nose-dived and unemployment surged. He raised taxes last year and, perhaps most significantly, stumped with Barack Obama for the stimulus package loathed by the Republican base that will decide this contest.

At the time Crist appeared onstage with Obama in February, it seemed like good politics, with the president enjoying sky-high approval ratings. A full 64 percent of Floridians approved of the job he was doing with only 23 percent disapproving, according to a February Quinnipiac poll.

No more. 

Now, 49 percent of Floridians disapprove of the way Obama's handling his job while 45 percent approve.

Story here

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-- Marc Caputo

[Last modified: Thursday, September 9, 2010 12:15pm]


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