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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Maybe we should be skeptical about economic projections for GOP convention



Wall Street Journal: ...Playing the role of party poopers are several economic observers who have gone back to study tax receipts and other signs of extra activity from earlier, similar mega-events, and generally haven't found much to crow over.
"Prospective promises are not likely to materialize," said Robert A. Baade, an economist at Lake Forest College in Illinois who has studied the impact of sporting events and political conventions....Philip Porter, an economist at the University of South Florida in Tampa who has studied the economics of big events, said the analysis didn't include displaced locals—including him. "My consulting office, my wife's downtown office and the offices of several of our friends will have to be closed," Prof. Porter said, adding, "These are predictions. One only needs to look back on the past to note that such predictions are made every time but have yet to materialize."
A study by Prof. Baade and colleagues agrees that these gains rarely show up. The researchers studied 18 national political conventions between 1972 and 2004, and found no statistically significant impact on personal income or local employment when comparing host cities with control cities that didn't host events..

[Last modified: Saturday, August 18, 2012 9:42am]


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