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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Moody's forecast: Obama will lose Florida but win second term



xc_022212_2t.gifMoody's Analytics predicts a second term for President Obama even as he loses Florida.

This prediction is tied to the Moody’s Analytics current baseline forecast for U.S. growth, which assumes that most states will continue to recover at slow to moderate speeds.

The forecast says the election will hinge on three states: Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Of those, Obama would win Ohio and Virginia by a hair, while he would lose Florida by the same.

Given a normal degree of uncertainty, the probabilities in these three states are almost equally balanced. If Obama loses all three, his projected Electoral College total drops to 272, only two more than needed to regain the White House. Since every state has at least three Electoral College votes, it would take only one more state for the GOP to return to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year.

On the other hand, the model suggests that an Obama win in any of these three key swing states will likely nail down a second term for him. The Democrats could win even if they lose two of the three key states and up to two smaller states—as long as three other large swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—remain in their column. The model indicates that all three are likely to go Democratic this year.

For the Republicans, by contrast, the model predicts an uphill battle this year. Even if the GOP nominee wins two out of three in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, he will still need to capture at least three smaller states now projected to go Democratic to win the presidency.

Read the full report here.


[Last modified: Monday, February 27, 2012 3:09pm]


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