Make us your home page

The Buzz

From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Nate Silver: Gov race is a deat heat



For those of us who are poll junkies, Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight blog over at the New York Times is a must-read. And according to his detailed formula that shows each candidate's chances of winning a particular race, he shows us what many local observers are expecting: the governor's race is neck and neck.

His latest write-up from Monday shows the volitility: Florida where the race has been nearly tied all year, remains that way, although this time the model makes Alex Sink, the Democrat, a nominal, 52-percent favorite, as a new Zogby poll shows her ahead of Rick Scott by 4 points. The race has been so tight in Florida that the lead in our forecast has been shifting back and forth in picking a leader with seemingly every new survey release.

The race has even shifted back since that post, and now Scott has a slightly higher chance of winning. Here are the past several odds of victory (note, that's different from projected election results), according to Silver's formula:

Oct. 26: Scott, 50.8%. Sink, 49.2%

Oct. 25: Sink, 51.9%. Scott, 48.1%

Oct. 22: Scott, 51.1%, Sink, 48.9%

Oct. 19: Sink, 58.5%, Scott, 41.5%

Oct. 12: Scott, 56.7%, Sink, 43.4%

[Last modified: Wednesday, October 27, 2010 5:31pm]


Join the discussion: Click to view comments, add yours