Nate Silver: Gov race is a deat heat
For those of us who are poll junkies, Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight blog over at the New York Times is a must-read. And according to his detailed formula that shows each candidate's chances of winning a particular race, he shows us what many local observers are expecting: the governor's race is neck and neck.
His latest write-up from Monday shows the volitility: Florida where the race has been nearly tied all year, remains that way, although this time the model makes Alex Sink, the Democrat, a nominal, 52-percent favorite, as a new Zogby poll shows her ahead of Rick Scott by 4 points. The race has been so tight in Florida that the lead in our forecast has been shifting back and forth in picking a leader with seemingly every new survey release.
The race has even shifted back since that post, and now Scott has a slightly higher chance of winning. Here are the past several odds of victory (note, that's different from projected election results), according to Silver's formula:
Oct. 26: Scott, 50.8%. Sink, 49.2%
Oct. 25: Sink, 51.9%. Scott, 48.1%
Oct. 22: Scott, 51.1%, Sink, 48.9%
Oct. 19: Sink, 58.5%, Scott, 41.5%
Oct. 12: Scott, 56.7%, Sink, 43.4%