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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Poll: McCain strong in S FL



We're not knocking our friends at the Herald (really, so chill Caputo) for their "Obama has lead in South FL" story today, but it seems to us John McCain can legimately see good news in the Herald/Zogby poll showing Barack Obama with a 16-point lead in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.  Consider that George W Bush lost Broward by 36 points and 30 points respectively in 2000 and 2004. In Palm Beach Bush lost by 27 points and 21 in 00 and 04; and in Miami-Dade it was a little more than 6 percent in both elections. We don't know the weighting of the counties, but trailing by 16 points in Florida's main Democratic strongholds doesn't sound so worrisome at all.


"When you compare apples to apples, we are, on average, doing better than Bush did in 2000 and 2004. In fact, Obama is underperforming Gore-Lieberman by 7.24% and Kerry-Edwards by 3.06%," McCain regional campaign manager Buzz Jacobs wrote in a memo to supporters. "This poll shows that we have a real opportunity to gain a bigger share of Independent and Democratic voters in Palm Beach and Broward Counties than in recent presidential election history."

UPDATE: More detail from the Herald: "In Miami-Dade, it was 48-32 Obama. In Broward, 48-26 Obama. In Palm Beach, 40-34 Obama. Compare those numbers to 2004: Miami-Dade voted 53-46 for Kerry. Broward voted 64-35 for Kerry. Palm Beach voted 60-39. So more than four months before the election, Obama's spread is better than Kerry's in Miami-Dade, but smaller than Kerry's in Broward and Palm Beach."

[Last modified: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 10:25am]


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