Poll: Rick Scott 47, Bill McCollum 40; Kendrick Meek 51, Jeff Greene 27
Different day. Different poll. Different result.
And so it is with Public Policy Polling, which released a survey at midnight (why then, guys?) that shows Rick Scott leading Bill McCollum 47-40 in the Republican race for governor (a lead that's within the 5.6 percentage point error margin). Kendrick Meek leads Jeff Greene 51-27 in the Democratic race (a lead that's well outside the error margin).
Meek's lead isn't so much of a surprise, considering the train-wreck nature of Greene's campaign as of late (just think: a vomit-caked yacht, party girls, Mike Tyson, mortgage woes, leaky-roofed gas stations and a Palm Beach billionaire). But the Scott numbers stand out because most polls in the final days have shown McCollum leading. PPP's polls are interactive voice response (IVR) surveys, in which callers are "interviewed" by a prerecorded voice and cast their vote/response by pushing numbers on the phone pad. The other surveys were conducted by live callers. Which is better? We'll know more Tuesday. (More here on the whole story of polling this campaign season.)
The PPP analysis is intriguing in that it says McCollum leads among seniors, but Scott is ahead with every other type of likely Republican voter (now where have we seen that observation before?). From the analysis:
If Scott does indeed end up as the GOP nominee on Tuesday night, it will be because Bill McCollum couldn’t keep up with conservative voters. Scott has a 50-39 lead with them even as he trails McCollum 44-39 with moderates. There is a major divide along age lines between the two candidates with McCollum ahead by 13 points with senior citizens and Scott up by 16 points with everyone else. The older the electorate is on Tuesday the better McCollum’s chances of pulling it out will be.
Whoever emerges as the winner on Tuesday will have a lot of healing to do. Both candidates generate pretty lukewarm feelings with the party base. Scott’s favorability is 46% and McCollum’s is 38%.
The Democratic Senate primary is looking a lot less competitive as it enters the home stretch. Kendrick Meek has taken a broad lead with 51% to Jeff Greene’s 27%. Meek’s 70-9 lead with African Americans is certainly a key component of his success but he’s also up 47-37 with white voters.