Democratic-aligned PPP has Bill Nelson leading Connie Mack 47-37 in a new poll. (A December survey showed Nelson up 11)

Nelson is up 47-37 on Connie Mack IV, 47-35 on Mike McCalister, and 48-34 on George LeMieux. Nelson's advantage comes thanks to leads ranging from 24-33 points with independents over the Republican field and because he wins anywhere between 11 and 16% of the GOP vote in the three match ups, more than the share of the Democratic vote that he's losing.

Nelson's leads come despite having only a 36% approval rating, with 32% of voters disapproving of him. Even after decades at the center of Florida politics 33% have no opinion about him one way or the other. The main thing holding Nelson's approval numbers back is that only 55% of Democrats give him good marks, but 80-81% of them still vote for him in head to head match ups against his GOP opponents. His 15% support from Republicans and 37/34 split with independents are decent. ...