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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Q poll: McCain has 50-43 edge in Florida



A fresh poll from Quinnipiac University: In Florida, John McCain leads Barack Obama 50 to 43 percent, compared to 47 to 43 percent on Aug. 26.

The survey found that 60 percent of Florida voters think John McCain's selection of Gov. Sarah Palin was a good idea. Still, 58 percent said the VP pick will have little impact on whom they vote for.

"The size of Sen. McCain’s margin with white voters overall tells the tale," said pollster Peter A. Brown. "In Florida, where McCain leads among whites by 24 points, that is a large enough cushion for him to survive Obama’s almost total control of the black vote and strong support among Hispanics."

Full poll results here. Other Florida headlines below.

Florida men who are likely voters back McCain 54 percent to Obama's 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 to Obama's 35 percent. Among voters 18 to 34 years old, Obama leads with 55 percent to McCain's 37 percent. McCain leads 52 to 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 to 39 percent with voters over 55.

Independent voters back McCain 50 to 43 percent, compared with 47 to 39 percent on Aug. 26. Twenty-four percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent Aug. 26.

By a 58 to 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 to 35 percent for Obama. Palin received 47 to 23 percent favorability, with 38 to 28 percent for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say. Twelve percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy.

Florida likely voters say, 58 to 38 percent, that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day.

“Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups,” Brown said. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly, takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats."

From Sept. 5–9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,032 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.


[Last modified: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 8:46am]


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