Sabato scutinizes Florida
Savvy UVA political scientist Larry Sabato appeared on "Political Connections" on Bay News 9 Sunday (Check out ch. 342, Bay News 9 on Demand if you missed it), and gave his take on some widely watched Florida races. Given the tough climate for Republicans nationally, Sabato is not among those who think Republicans have a lock on the governor's race:
"It's really one of the few major governor races where a Republican is favored for November. But I don't think Charlie Crist is heavily favored. I think this is a reasonably competitive race, and if Jim Davis gets enough money he ought to be able to make a decent contest out of it.
While Democrats are making noise about Congressional districts 9 and 13, Sabato sees Clay Shaw in CD 22 as the only truly vulnerable Congressional Republican. CD 9: "I don't think (Gus) Bilirakis is vulnerable. I think a lot of people won't know he's succeeding his father.'' CD: 13: "Vern Buchanan is not the strongest Republican for Katherine Harris' successor but I would still give him the edge. Certainly Christine Jennings is a reasonably strong Democrat, but there has to be a strong Democratic trend before any democrat can win that district.''