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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Suffolk Fla. poll: Obama 49, McCain 44



Suffolk University Oct. 23-26 (moe +/-4%) has Obama up 5 points in Florida. From the pollster:


"Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by a slim margin," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "But our Florida bellwethers may be telltale signs of the race tightening."

In both Florida bellwethers of Hillsborough and Monroe counties, Obama and McCain were deadlocked at exactly 42 percent each. Suffolk University conducts bellwether polls in particular regions that historically reflect how the wider population will vote. Statewide, Obama led McCain 46 percent to 45 percent among those very likely to vote but was crushing McCain 60 percent to 40 percent among those who had already voted.

Of those voters who may change their minds, Obama led 58 percent to 37 percent, but of those who had made up their minds, Obama only led 51 percent to 49 percent. "John McCain still has an opportunity to close the gap among those self-identified voters who may change their minds in the next seven days. The question is whether he will close the margin or flip the state entirely from blue to red."


[Last modified: Tuesday, September 14, 2010 4:40pm]


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