Superdel Ausman:I'll declare when Dean does
From DNCer Jon Ausman: "DNC Chair Howard Dean has asked all the superdelegates to declare their preferences as soon as possible. After Howard Dean announces his preference, I will think about making up my mind and announce mine.
"My choice will be based on the following three criteria: one, which candidate is most likely to get 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency; two, which candidate will help us pick up US Senate seats; and, three, which candidate will help us pick up US Representative seats in the House."
On the jump we're pasting much of Ausman's latest mass e-mail, because he has a good a sense as anybody on what's doing with his challenges to get Fl delegates restored
Four points of interest today: one, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC); two, a recent poll in Florida and Michigan of primary voters; three, the cost per vote in Pennsylvania; and, four, Dean’s call for the superdelegates to announce their choice for President.
Rules and Bylaws Committee
On Monday, 17 March 2008, I filed with the DNC RBC a two part appeal on behalf of more than twenty Floridians signing notarized affidavits. The first appeal noted that DNC Charter states Florida’s USSenator, USRepresentatives and DNC Members “shall” be delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Committee. If granted that would give Florida23 delegates.
The second appeal states the required penalty for a timing violation is a 50% reduction in delegates. This would give Florida92 more delegates. A solution here would be either to reduce the number of delegates but give them a full vote or accept all the pledged delegates and give them a half vote.
I have spoken with one of the Co-Chairs of the DNC RBC and exchanged numerous voice mails with the other. In addition, I have talked with various staff members and with a number of other informed parties outside the DNC RBC.
The Co-Chairs are, indeed, taking a lot of time in making a decision. It has been 39 days since the appeal has been filed. The Co-Chairs, in their reflections, are just one day shy of the forty days Jesus spent in the desert - a time of prayer and temptation - getting ready for his ministry.
The Co-Chairs have likely spent the last 39 days praying a clear cut front-runner would emerge. I am sure they have been tempted to let this chalice pass from the lips.
However, it is nearly time to announce a schedule so Floridians can know whether a legitimate challenge will be heard, or not. I believe the Co-Chairs want to have this handled before 29 June 2008 (which is the day the DNC RBC lose jurisdiction on the question) and perhaps before 3 June 2008 (the day of the last primary).
I am not critical of the time being taken as I am aware there are a multitude of issues involved. Nonetheless, the time to move forward on the appeals is rapidly approaching.
Poll Results of FloridaVoters
A recent poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the SavetheVoters.org. This polls clearly shows that Floridaand Michigan Democrats want their participation in their respective January primaries to result in the allocation of their state’s delegates.
The poll was conducted 18-20 April 2008 and included 1,200 Democratic voters. Overall it has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% (4.3% in Michiganand 4.4% in Florida).
The following finds are from a Business Wire report.
· Voters in both states do not support evenly-splitting their delegates; 82% of Florida Democrats and 77% of Michigan primary voters support seating delegates on the basis of the early primary results or using a new primary over an evenly-split delegation. Even among supporters of Barack Obama (who would benefit from an even split), only 42% favored this option.
· A significant majority (58%) of Florida Democrats support seating delegates based on early primary results; more Michiganprimary voters support this option than any other individual option.
· 62% of FloridaDemocratsand 53% of Michigan Democrats support the appeal before the DNC Rules & Bylaw committee seeking restoration of 50% of Florida's delegation to be seated on the basis of early primary results.
· There is considerable pressure on the DNC to allocate these state delegations based on the will of the people of these two states. Over 28% of Democratic voters will vote for Republican John McCain or a third party candidate in the general presidential election if the DNC does not allocate delegates on the basis of their votes, an effect that is consistent no matter whether Hillary Clinton or Obama is the eventual nominee.