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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Superdel Ausman:I'll declare when Dean does

24

April

From DNCer Jon Ausman: "DNC Chair Howard Dean has asked all the superdelegates to declare their preferences as soon as possible.  After Howard Dean announces his preference, I will think about making up my mind and announce mine.

"My choice will be based on the following three criteria:  one, which candidate is most likely to get 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency; two, which candidate will help us pick up US Senate seats; and, three, which candidate will help us pick up US Representative seats in the House."

On the jump we're pasting much of Ausman's latest mass e-mail, because he has a good a sense as anybody on what's doing with his challenges to get Fl delegates restored

Greetings,

Four points of interest today:   one, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee  (RBC); two, a recent poll in Florida and Michigan of primary voters;  three, the cost per vote in  Pennsylvania; and, four, Dean’s call for the superdelegates to announce their  choice for President.

Rules and Bylaws  Committee

On Monday, 17 March 2008, I filed with the DNC RBC a two part appeal on  behalf of more than twenty Floridians signing notarized affidavits.  The first appeal noted that DNC Charter  states Florida’s USSenator, USRepresentatives and DNC Members  “shall” be delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Committee.  If granted that would give Florida23  delegates.

The second appeal states the required penalty for a timing violation is a  50% reduction in delegates.  This  would give Florida92 more delegates.  A solution here would be either to  reduce the number of delegates but give them a full vote or accept all the  pledged delegates and give them a half vote.

I have spoken with one of the Co-Chairs of the DNC RBC and exchanged  numerous voice mails with the other.   In addition, I have talked with various staff members and with a number  of other informed parties outside the DNC RBC.

The Co-Chairs are, indeed, taking a lot of time in making a  decision.  It has been 39 days since  the appeal has been filed.  The  Co-Chairs, in their reflections, are just one day shy of the forty days Jesus  spent in the desert  - a time of  prayer and temptation -  getting  ready for his ministry.

The Co-Chairs have likely spent the last 39 days praying a clear cut  front-runner would emerge.  I am  sure they have been tempted to let this chalice pass from the lips.

However, it is nearly time to announce a schedule so Floridians can know  whether a legitimate challenge will be heard, or not.  I believe the Co-Chairs want to have  this handled before 29 June 2008 (which is the day the DNC RBC lose jurisdiction  on the question) and perhaps before 3 June 2008 (the day of the last  primary).

I am not critical of the time being taken as I am aware there are a  multitude of issues involved.   Nonetheless, the time to move forward on the appeals is rapidly  approaching.

Poll Results of FloridaVoters

A recent poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the  SavetheVoters.org.  This polls  clearly shows that Floridaand Michigan Democrats want their  participation in their respective January primaries to result in the allocation  of their state’s delegates.

The poll was conducted 18-20 April 2008 and included 1,200 Democratic  voters.  Overall it has a margin of  error of +/- 3.1% (4.3% in Michiganand 4.4% in  Florida). 

The following finds are from a Business Wire report.

·          Voters in both states do not support evenly-splitting their  delegates; 82% of Florida Democrats and 77% of Michigan primary voters  support seating delegates on the basis of the early primary results or using a  new primary over an evenly-split delegation. Even among supporters of Barack  Obama (who would benefit from an even split), only 42% favored this option. 

·          A significant majority (58%) of Florida Democrats support seating delegates based  on early primary results; more Michiganprimary voters support this option  than any other individual option.

·          62% of  FloridaDemocratsand 53% of Michigan Democrats support the appeal before the DNC Rules  & Bylaw committee seeking restoration of 50% of Florida's delegation to  be seated on the basis of early primary results. 

·          There is considerable pressure on the DNC to allocate  these state delegations based on the will of the people of these two states.  Over 28% of Democratic voters will vote for Republican John McCain or a third  party candidate in the general presidential election if the DNC does not  allocate delegates on the basis of their votes, an effect that is consistent no  matter whether Hillary Clinton or Obama is the eventual nominee. 

[Last modified: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 11:53am]

    

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