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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Why the GOP should worry about Orlando



Democratic strategist Steve Schale has posted another of his terrific number-crunching pieces making the case for how demographic changes in metro Orlando - not just the growing Puerto Rican population, but also African-Americans - pose serious longterm challenges for Republican.

...While winning Florida still starts and ends with winning key swing counties and suburban swing voters, the changing Orlando area means that one fundamental component could be changing. For years, a push among swing voters usually went to the GOP, given their slight edge in base voters. However a changing Orlando area could tilt the I-4 corridor in such a way that a push among swing voters will now go to the Democrats.

The basic promise of a competitive Florida has generally lied in the calculus that Democrats down south and Republicans up north cancel each other out, and battle for the statewide prize in the Tampa and Orlando media markets. But if the three counties around Orlando continue to trend in the coming decade and beyond like they have in recent years, the fundamental balance of the I-4 will shift.  I'll let you ponder what that means.

Read every word here

[Last modified: Tuesday, April 17, 2012 4:54pm]


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