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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Dueling Fla poll: Trump 34%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 17%

25

February

Quinipiac's new Florida poll has Donald Trump leading among likely GOP voters in Florida by 14 percentage points. But Quinnipiac wasn't the only one polling Florida this week. Here's today's memo from Associated Industries smart guy Ryan Tyson:

Good Afternoon

Below are the results of our Florida Likely Republican Primary voter survey. Unlike usual, I would recommend you circulate these survey results with the election in just 19 days. In short, Florida isn’t over yet, but for the 4th survey we have done on this subject to date, Donald Trump continues to lead here, although by a smaller margin than in our previous surveys. This was an n=600 likely Republican primary voter survey fielded on Tuesday & Wednesday night of this week with 26% of the participants reached on their cell phone and has a margin of error of +/­ 4%.

Image tests (Fav/Unfav): We only looked at the top three candidates, and while their image is positive, it remains soft.

Marco Rubio: 67 – 19 (+48% Net Fav)

20% Very Favorable, 9% Very Unfavorable

Donald Trump: 52 – 39 (+13% Net Fav)

22% Very Favorable, 25% Very Unfavorable

Ted Cruz: 51 – 31 (+20% Net Fav)

12% Very Favorable, 13% Very Unfavorable

The 5­way ballot has Trump +7%, however the internals give a clear indication of where Trump’s outside the margin lead is likely coming from as well as a possible indicator of what the election could look like if Florida’s turnout resembles the early state trend we have been seeing. As you will see below, Trump’s support in this survey is predominantly from males, voters who prioritize a strong national defense and lower propensity primary voters. What is in common with the Q poll released this morning, is that while this survey has Trump with half the lead they reported, we do have Rubio at the same level of support as in their survey.

Candidate TOPLINE

Ben Carson 5%

Ted Cruz 17%

John Kasich 5%

Marco Rubio 27%

Donald Trump 34%

Undecided 12%

Gender:

Amongst Females (53% of the sample)

Rubio is +1% leading Trump 32 – 31

Amongst Males (47% of the sample)

Trump is +14% leading Rubio 37 – 23

Issues:

Amongst voters who prioritize electing a strong fiscal conservative as the most important factor in determining their vote (49% of the sample) Trump is +1%, leading Rubio 32 – 31

Amongst voters who prioritize a strong national defense as the most important factor in determining their vote (18% of the sample) Trump is +30%, leading Rubio 49 – 19

Voter Propensity:

Amongst voters who have voted in both of the last two primaries in Florida (53% of this sample) Trump +4 leading Rubio 34 – 30

Amongst voters who have voted in only 1 of the last two primaries in Florida (43% of this sample) Trump +10 leading Rubio 35 – 25

This race isn’t over but we stress the point we have been making since December: a crowded field has done as much or more to support Donald Trump’s front runner status in Florida than probably anything he has done for himself, however a growing sense of inevitability is tangible out there as these early state results come in. As of this morning, 248,314 Republican absentees have been returned representing 6% of their registration. To put that into perspective, we are preparing for ~2 million Republican ballots to be cast (with over half of the voters being cast on Election Day) so we haven’t even gotten into the meat of the electorate yet, but Early Voting begins in 13 Florida counties on Monday.

This survey was commissioned by Associated Industries of Florida and conducted by Tel Opinion Research on Tuesday & Wednesday, February 23 & 24 th and has a margin of error of +/­ 4% within the 95% confidence interval.


[Last modified: Thursday, February 25, 2016 5:31pm]

    

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