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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Early vote trend favoring GOP in Florida

2

November

Six days before Election Day in 2012, Democrats in Florida had cast about 39,000 more votes than Republicans. Today, six days before Election Day 2016, Republicans have cast about 17,000 more votes than Democrats.

We can parse the numbers in terms of whether Republicans have banked more voters certain to vote anyway or whether it's fair to compare 2012's longer early vote period to the shorter one four years ago. The bottom line, though, is that Democrats in Florida so far are performing worse than expected and Republicans better.

It's going to be close.

You can read Democrat Steve Schale's daily take/spin on the numbers here, but here's a snippet:

I've been thinking about the "why Dems aren't ahead" question, and I think the answer may be more structural than obvious. Over the last four years, Democrats have lost about 400k white Dems, many to party switching, and a large number in North Florida. I'm going to explore this question more, but I have a hunch those 12 leads people keep talking about week built, in part, with voters who are not Dems anymore, and probably in the end didn't vote for Obama.

Also, just to reiterate a point from yesterday, more 2012 Election Day GOP have voted early than 2012 EDay Dems, by about 35k voters. Take those out & Dems have been leading since early last week.

However, what that means is Dems have more 2012 voters yet to vote, meaning at same time, the old rule about GOP crushing Election Day ma not apply.

I still think we are headed towards an electorate that's 34-35% non-white. It was 33% in 12, and 29% in 08. Voter reg is 36% non-white. Anything more diverse than 12 is a net positive for Clinton.

 

[Last modified: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 1:33pm]

    

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