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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Exhibits A and B on why Donald Trump may win Florida

Smart guy Democratic strategist Steve Schale wrote a column this week warning Florida Democrats not to get complacent about Donald Trump. Dismissing Trump's Florida prospects is understandable when you see evidence like a recent poll for Associated Industries that found Hillary Clinton leading him by 13 percentage points in Florida, where nearly nine in 10 Hispanic voters have a negative view of the presumptive Republican nominee. But if you doubt that Schale is right, consider recent polls of two of Florida's swingiest legislative swing districts:

***An April 24-28 EMC Research  (MoE =/1 4.9 percent) of Florida House District 69 in Pinellas County - represented currently by Republican Kathleen Peters of South Pasadena and won twice by Barack Obama - found Trump with 48 percent support and Clinton with 44 percent. Fifty-eight percent of voters in that swing district had an unfavorable view of Trump, and 58 percent had an unfavorable view of Clinton.

***A March 17-21 EMC poll (MoE =/- 5.6 percent) of state Sen. District 24 - represented by Republican Jeff Brandes of St. Pete, including parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough County, and won narrowly by Obama twice and comfortably by Charlie Crist in 2014 - showed Trump beating Clinton in that district 49 percent to 41 percent.

[Last modified: Thursday, May 5, 2016 2:35pm]


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