FAU poll: Hillary Clinton up 6
Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by a sizable 6 percentage points, 49 percent to 43 percent, according to a new survey by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative, which also conducted a poll of Hispanic likely voters that found Clinton leading 52 percent to 33.
FAU conducted two polls simultaneously – a poll surveying 400 likely voters in Florida, and a poll of 400 Hispanic voters in Florida. Data was collected with a mix mode of online and Interactive Voice Response. The polls were conducted Oct. 5-9 and carry a 4.9 percent margin of error. Four hundred is a small sample for likely voters statewide.
Among all likely voters, Clinton leads with both females (51 percent to 42 percent) and males (46 percent to 45 percent). Trump’s base of support is in northern Florida, where he leads 60 percent to 39 percent. Clinton enjoys strong support in southern Florida, where she leads 47 to 38 percent, and in the central part of the state, which breaks for her 57 to 36 percent.
Clinton is backed by 92 percent of Democrats, while Trump has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and also leads among Independents 45 to 36 percent.
Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative, said national trends are being reflected in the Florida numbers that show Trump has lost significant ground. With one in five Republicans in Florida saying they do not back Trump, it’s clear he will have to do better with his own party to have a chance to win, Wagner said.
“Mr. Trump continues to trail sharply among women and minorities and those numbers point to a loss in Florida barring a significant late improvement,” he said. “Conventional wisdom in this state is that central Florida is the bellwether area. Our numbers are showing Mrs. Clinton ahead in that region by over 20 points. That should raise concerns in the Trump campaign.”
While both major party candidates continue to be underwater in terms of their favorability ratings, Clinton has closed the gap in the last two months, going from 40 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable in August to 44 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable in the latest poll. Trump’s favorable rating remains at the same level it was in August at 41 percent, while his unfavorable rating dropped two percentage points from 56 to 54 percent.
In the Hispanic poll, Clinton enjoys a 45 percent favorable rating, with 43 percent unfavorable. Trump’s favorable rating among Hispanics is 31 percent, compared with 61 percent rating him unfavorable.