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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Fla poll: Donald Trump 28%, Carson 16%, Rubio 14%, Bush 12%



Donald Trump has twice as much Republican support in Florida as Sunshine State favorites Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, a new Quinnipiac University poll shows.

The reality star has risen to 28 percent support from 21 percent in Quinnipiac's last Florida support, followed by retired surgeon Ben Carson with 16 percent, Rubio with 14 percent, and Bush 12 percent, Carly Fiorina with 7 percent, and Ted Cruz with 6 percent., No other candidate was over 2 percent and 10 percent were undecided.

“The generally more energized Republican party members, who backed former Gov. Bush and Sen. Rubio when they ran for office in the Sunshine State, are deserting the establishment candidates for the outsiders – specifically Trump and Carson,” said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown.

Still, 29 percent of Republicans said the "definitely will NOT" vote for Trump.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 43 percent, with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden at 19 percent each and 13 percent undecided.  Only 13 percent would not vote for Clinton.  

In general election matchups:

### Biden gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Carson and edges Bush 46 – 42 percent.  He tops Fiorina 49 – 38 percent and gets 46 percent to 43 percent for Rubio.  Biden beats Trump 52 – 38 percent.  

###Clinton gets 43 percent to 44 percent for Bush and gets 45 percent to Carson’s 43 percent.  She gets 44 percent to 42 percent for Fiorina and 44 percent to Rubio’s 45 percent.  Clinton tops Trump 46 – 41 percent.   

###Sanders slips behind Bush 45 – 41 percent and loses to Carson 46 – 40 percent.  He gets 41 percent to 42 percent for Fiorina.  He trails Rubio 46 – 41 percent and beats Trump  46 – 41 percent.

Quinnipiac also released surveys for Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Trump and Clinton also led their respective fields. But the frontrunners also had the worst favorability/unfavorability numbers, and Carson and Joe Biden had the strongest numbers in general election match ups.

“Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson, the other two ‘outsider’ candidates in the GOP race, seem to be making progress.  But Bush, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas seem to be treading water,” Brown said.  “In the Democratic race, former Secretary Clinton enjoys greater leads than Trump over her declared opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and potential opponent, Vice President Joseph Biden, but the vice president is gaining, while she is losing support.  

“When we get past the playoffs to the World Series, the general election face-off, Biden does better against leading Republicans than does Clinton or Sanders.  Trump, despite his strong showing in mock Republican primaries, fares worst among the GOP candidates matched against the three Democratic aspirants – giving some credence to pundits who say the billionaire could be every Democrats’ favorite GOP nominee.”

The Sept, 25 to Oct. 5 poll included 1,173 Florida voter and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.  The survey included 461 Republicans with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points and 411 Democrats with a margin of error ofplus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

You can find the full results here

[Last modified: Wednesday, October 7, 2015 7:00am]


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