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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Fla Poll: Trump 22%, Carson 19%, Rubio 15%, Bush 9%

19

October

An Oct. 8 -- 13 University of North Florida statewide poll of Republican primary likely voters finds Donald Trump leading with 21.7 percent, followed by Ben Carson 19.3 percent, Marco Rubio in third with 14.9 percent and Jeb Bush at a distant fourth with 9 percent. Asked the name their second choice 20.1 percent said Rubio, 14.9 percent said Carson, 11.1 percent said Carly Fiorina, 10.2 percent said Bush, 6.2 percent Ted Cruz, and 6 percent Trump.

From a release:

When asked about candidate favorability, 52.5 percent of Republican primary likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 39.9 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Regarding Bush, 64.9 percent have a favorable opinion and 28.8 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Rubio is more popular as 81.1 percent of the respondents view him favorably, while only 13 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Republican primary likely voters think the economy, jobs and unemployment (35.4 percent) are the most important problem facing the United States today, followed by terrorism (18.1 percent) and immigration (13.5 percent). When asked about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the U.S., 23.4 percent of Republican primary likely voters think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time, while 19 percent think the government should make them all felons and send them back to their home country. About 8 percent think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 

Another 38.5 percent think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines, and 7.1 percent think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 

The Public Opinion Research Laboratory, through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at UNF conducted the telephone survey. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs. Since its opening in 2001, the PORL has conducted more than 120 research projects, which include focus groups, data collection, telephone, online and economic impact surveys. The PORL is a Charter Member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. Approximately 200 UNF students participated in the data collection. 

A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Republican likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections’ voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 70 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Respondents in the sample, when called, were asked for by their first and last name to ensure the interview was taken by the correct individual in the household. For non-completes with a working residential or cell phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. nightly from Thursday, Oct. 8 through Tuesday, Oct. 13, and include 641 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.87 percent. Race, age and gender were weighted to reflect the adult registered Republican likely voter population in Florida.

[Last modified: Monday, October 19, 2015 3:30pm]

    

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