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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Florida Insider Poll: Predicting Tuesday's election



Time for our final Florida Insider Poll of the 2016 election cycle. 

We surveyed more than 170 of Florida’s most experienced politicos — campaign operatives, fundraisers, political scientists, lobbyists and the like — about their predictions. 

The results?

• Almost two-thirds expect Hillary Clinton will win Florida, all but guaranteeing she wins the White House.

• More than 3 out of 4 think she will win the presidency, regardless of whether she wins the Sunshine State.

• Almost 95 percent expect Republican Marco Rubio to beat Democrat Patrick Murphy for U.S. Senate.

• Nearly 9 in 10 expect the medical marijuana ballot initiative to pass.

•Seven in 10 doubt that the utility-backed amendment relating to solar power — and opposed by most consumer groups — will reach the 60 percent threshold needed to pass.

“I expect in Florida the main difference between Donald Trump losing and Marco Rubio winning will be the Hispanic vote. But we will see soon enough!” said one independent voter.

“Trump’s worst week of entire campaign (first debate, twitter wars, tape) came at best time for (Clinton) —  right when (mail ballots) were dropping and being returned,” a Republican said. “If Trump loses, you can point to that week specifically.”

Don’t freak out over this Insider Poll, Trump supporters, or get smug, Clinton backers.

This is an utterly unscientific poll that reflects conventional wisdom of Florida’s political elites. These are the same folks who last summer overwhelmingly expected Jeb Bush to be the Republican nominee.

We allow participants in our Insider Polls to weigh in anonymously to encourage honest assessments. Participants included 63 Democrats, 91 Republicans and 12 people registered to neither major party. 

This month's Insiders:

Gay Gaines, Kathleen Shanahan, Chris Korge, Nick Hansen, David Bishop, Betty Castor, Jill Chamberlin, Ryan Wiggins, Dan Mclaughlin, Susan Smith, Lucy Morgan, Brian Goff, Brian Franklin, Doc Dockery, Abel Harding, Tom Lewis, Van Poole, Ron Gunzburger, Jason Roth, Mike Hamby, Allan Bense, Jon Ausman, Scott Barnhart, Mark Zubaly, Kirk Fordham, Robert Watkins, Fred Karlinsky, Jack Seiler, Stephen Bittel, Ralph Arza, Amber Stoner, Jon Woodard, Jackie Lee, Alex Sink, Darryl Paulson, Matt Bryan, Gayle Andrews, Brian Crowley, Geoffrey Becker, Bill Bunkley, Peter Feaman, Nikki Lowrey, Paula Dockery, John Wehrung, Bob Sparks, Peter Antonacci, David Mica, Ellen Freidin, Eric Eikenberg, Nan Rich, Don Hinkle, Kevin King, Chris Hand, Gretchen Picotte, Ken Jones, Tony DiMatteo, David Colburn, Alan Clendenin, Jim Holton, Greg C. Truax, Stafford Jones, Susan Goldstein, Jim Horne, Pete Mitchell, Hayden Dempsey, April Schiff, Jon Mills, Joe Gruters, Richard DeNapoli, Javier Manjerres, Susan Glickman, Mary Anne Carter, David Johnson, Leslie Wimes, John French, Joshua Karp, Sarah Rumpf, Bob Graham, Christian Camara, Seth McKee, Aubrey Jewett, Alan Stonecipher, Mark Ferrulo, Husein Cumber, Gus Corbella, Jeff Johnson, Jack Hebert, Rick Wilson, Ryan Banfill, Marion Hammer, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Eric Johnson, Mike Abrams, Barry Edwards, Jack Furnari, Brad Coker, Justin Day, Eric Zichella, Steve Geller, Erik Kirk, Bud Shorstein, Clarence McKee, Mac Stipanovich, Kathy Mears, Jim Smith, Ron Bilbao, Mike Hanna, Eric Jotkoff, Jason Rosenberg, Susannah Randolph, Marc Reichelderfer, Roly Marante, Chip Case, John Morgan, Monica Russo, Christian Ziegler, Bettina Inclan, Bill Lee, Stephen Shiver, Anthony Pedicini, Cory Tilley, John Stemberger, Doug Kaplan, Steve Vancore, Josh Geise, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Alex Patton, Mark Foley, Al Maloof, Screven Watson, Frank Tsamoutales, Christian Ulvert, Ashley Bauman, Dave Aronberg, Ron Pierce, Bernie Campbell, Mike Williams, Ann Herberger, Kevin Cate, Jim Rimes, Jason Unger, Pat Neal, Matthew Isbell, Robert Wexler, Ana Navarro, Ben Pollara, Damien Filer, Ron Sachs, John Dowless, Jim Cherry, Joy-Ann Reid, Bob Poe, Kirk Pepper, Andy Ford, Susie Wiles, Rich Heffley, Frank Torres, Bill Helmich, Darrick D. McGhee, JC Planas, Paul Mitchell, Fred Piccolo, Ryan Duffy, Jason Altmire, Alan Becker, Donna Arduin, David Rancourt, Stephanie Kunkel, Jeff Hartley, Jean Clements, Jamie Wilson, Jose Gonzalez, Ron Greenstein.

Note: We updated this post with late voters, though none of the results changed


[Last modified: Monday, November 7, 2016 11:45am]


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