Florida Insider Poll: Donald Trump wins Florida against Bernie Sanders, loses against Hillary Clinton
The votes are still coming in on our latest Florida Insider Poll, but one view is strikingly consistent among more than 120 savvy political pros we surveyed. If Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton and Republicans nominate Donald Trump, she wins Florida's 29 electoral votes. If it's Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump, Trump wins.
"Florida is a center-right state, so when presented with centrist options, that is where voters go, when pressed with extremes they will default to the right," said one Democrat said of the battleground state that Republicans can't win the White House without.
Nearly 80 of our Insiders said Clinton would beat Trump in Florida, while 72 percent said Trump would carry the Sunshine State against Sanders. Similarly, 81 percent said Clinton would beat Ted Cruz in Florida, but 69 percent said Cruz would beat Sanders, the Democratic Socialist.
"The turnout among African American and Hispanic voters will determine whether or not Dems carry Florida and there's no doubt that Clinton factors better in that equation for putting us in the blue category on the big map," another Democrat said.
From a Republican: "Trump cannot win Florida in a general election. Especially with his unfavorables w/women and Hispanics continuing to climb."
Mind you, these are unscientific surveys that tend to reflect conventional wisdom among Florida's political elites and are not necessarily accurate predictors. Conventional wisdom has been wrong throughout this cycle, after all. This list is political insiders is loaded with representatives of Florida political establishment, and many of them are actively involved in campaigns we ask about.
Votes are still coming in, but participants so far include:
J.C. Planas, Anthony Pedicini, David Rancourt, Susie Wiles, Towson Fraser, Stephen Bittel, Joe Gruters, Pablo Diaz, Sarah Rumpf, Wayne Bertsch, Alex Patton, Sam Rashid, Ryan Duffy, Robin Rorapaugh, Slater Bayliss, Rich Ramos, Trey Traviesa, John Konkus, Seth McKee, Rodney Barreto, Nikki Lowrey, Roly Marante, Jack Seiler, Stebe Uhlfelder, Rick Wilson, Ryan Tyson, Bill Lee, Gayle Andrews, Steven Vancore, Jim Cherry, Steve Schale, Eric Zichella Tony Hill, Jason Rosenberg, Ron Gunzburger, Tom Scarritt, Jamie Miller, Chris Hartline, Stafford Jones, Jason Altmire, Richard NeNapoli, Peter Wallace, Ron Bilbao, Steve Geller, Tom Lewis, Chip Lamarca, Rich Heffley, Mike Fasano, Darrick D.McGhee, Peter Antonacci, Jason Unger, Robert Wexler, Fred Karlinksy, Mike Hightower, Chris Hand, Scott Arceneaux, Jon Ausman, Mark Zubaly, Bob Sparks, Ann Herberger, Bob Poe, Gus Corbella, Andrew Gillum, Brian Crowley, Bud Shorstein, Barry Edwards, Shannon Gravitte, Clarence McKee, Brad Coker, Pat Neal, Mark Ferrulo, Kevin King, Nick Hansen, David Johnson, Jim Rimes, Karl Koch, Brian Ballard, Aubrey Jewett, Christina Johnson, Jim Davis, Greg Turbeville, Jeff Johnson, Doc Dockery, Eric Jotkoff, Marc Reichelderfer, Jeff Wright, Frank Tsamoutales, Joe Perry, Paula Dockery, Ana Cruz, Andrew Weinstein, Darryl Paulson, Cory Tilley, Greg C. Truax, Nancy McGowan, Adam Goodman, Travis Blanton, Allan Bense, Kathy Mears, Kevin Cate, Dan Gelber, Christian Ulvert, Brett Doster, Jamie Wilson, Paul Mitchell, David Bishop, Michael Hamby, Lanny Wiles, Eric Eikenberg, Pete Mitchell, David Bishop, Michael Hamby, Eric Eikenberg, Pete Mitchell, John French, Jon Mills, Husein Cumber, Marty Fiorentino, Matthew Isbell, Ryan Wiggins, Donald Hinkle, Dave Aronberg, Bernie Campbell, Andy Ford.Karen Unger, Ron Klein, Alan Clendenin, Henry Kelley, Kirk Fordham, John Wehrung, Caren Lobo, Susan Smith, Marion Hammer,Jeff Hartley, Brian May, Alan Stonecipher, Susan Goldstein, Christian Camara, Abel Harding, Meredith ORourke, Jeff Kottkamp, Ron Greenstein, Monica Russo, Ron Pierce, Chris Korge