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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Florida poll: Clinton 46, Trump 42



Hillary Clinton may have gotten a slight boost from the debate as a new Florida poll shows her with a 4 point lead over Donald Trump.

Still, the race remains close. In the Mason-Dixon poll, Clinton takes 46 percent of the vote to Trump’s 42 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 7 percent and Jill Stein a weak 1 percent.

From a polling memo:

The race in Florida continues to predictably split among the various demographic sub-groups. Clinton leads among Democrats (83%-10%), women (54%-36%), blacks (92%-1%), Hispanics (64%-29%) and in Southeast Florida (58%-29%).

Trump is ahead with Republicans (77%-13%), unaffiliated voters (41%-33%), men (49%-37%) and non-Hispanic whites (53%-33%). Trump still has very strong support in North Florida (53%-37%) and Southwest Florida (51%-36%).

In the generally decisive I-4 corridor, Clinton currently has a slight advantage. She now has a 47%-40% in the swing Tampa Bay area, while Trump only leads 46%-43% in more Republican leaning Central Florida.

Despite small shifts that have given Clinton a post-debate bump, the race is still very competitive and the outcome will hinge on where and among whom voter turnout is higher.

Florida from September 27 through September 29, 2016. A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

The margin for error is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points.

[Last modified: Friday, September 30, 2016 11:29am]


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