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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Florida poll: Clinton 46, Trump 44



Hillary Clinton has a four point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new poll from University of North Florida.

In a four-way race, Clinton takes 43 percent of the vote vs. 39 percent for Trump, 6 percent for Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Jill Stein. Nine percent of voters are undecided.

Head-to-head, Clinton’s lead shrinks to two percentage points – 46 to 44.

“There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41 – 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably,” said Michael Binder, director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

“This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida.”

The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up only 1.6 percentage points in a four-way race. That average does not include the UNF poll.

In the Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent.

“Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy,” Binder said in a release.

The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote “yes” on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana.

“This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2,” Dr. Binder noted.


[Last modified: Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:08pm]


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