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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Florida poll: Hillary Clinton easily beats Ted Cruz or Donald Trump

Even though a whopping 42 percent of Florida voters have a "very unfavorable" view of Hillary Clinton and more see her image negatively than positively, the likely Democratic presidential nominee today easily beats either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in Florida, according to the latest tracking poll by the Republican-leaning Associated Industries of Florida. Get this: Among Hispanics (about 14 percent of the electorate and this polling sample), Trump is viewed negatively by 87!!!! percent.

Here's the whole memo from AIF's political guru:

From: Ryan D. Tyson 
Sent: Saturday, April 30, 2016 7:15 PM
To: Ryan D. Tyson <>
Subject: Latest Florida Tracking Survey
Our latest Florida tracking survey provides an ominous warning for Republicans as they head into the final full month of their nomination process.  Using the most conservative delegate allocation scenarios for the remaining 10 states, it appears clear to us that Donald Trump is on his way to surpass the 1,237 delegate threshold by June 7 (see graphic below for reference). Even if he was to fail and the convention was to select Ted Cruz, the outlook doesn’t improve much.

We teamed up with Steve Vancore at ClearView Research for this n=604 likely general election survey (+/-5%) which we fielded this past week on Monday thru Wednesday, April 25-27. Slides with relevant crosstabs are attached but I will summarize this data package with a few highlights:

·       Voters in Florida appear poised to reject Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as viable options for the presidency as evidenced in their poor image ratings and ballot position with key segments of the electorate. In this survey, Donald Trump is -29 (33 fav/62 unfav) with 50% of the electorate having a very unfavorable view of him.  Amongst Hispanics, who will make up ~14% of the general electorate in Florida, Trump is -77 (10/87), and no, that is not a typo.  Trump is also underwater with Cubans by 60% (17/77). Even though he is still pursuing what we believe is an outside chance at the nomination, Ted Cruz isn’t doing any better at -30 (29/59) with 39% of the electorate having a very unfavorable view of him. Perhaps the most damaging news for either candidate is how high their negatives are within their own party.  Amongst Republicans, Trump is 55/38 and Cruz is actually under water by a point, 47/48.

·       While Secretary Clinton posts better numbers than her Republican counterparts, she leaves much to be desired as a presumptive nominee.  Clinton is -6% on image (46/52) with 42% of the electorate having a very unfavorable view of her and upside down with Non-Major Party Voters or NMP’s (-8), Hispanics (-2) and millennials (-31).

·       In the ballot scenarios, Secretary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 13% (49-36) and is comfortably leading him amongst NMP’s (+17%), Females (+22%), Hispanics (+43%) and every other demographic crosstab except whites, where Trump leads Clinton by 8%. Within his own party, Trump loses 15% of Republicans surveyed to Clinton.  If he was to pull out a miracle in Ohio, Senator Cruz would trail Secretary Clinton by only 9% (48-39) by making slight improvements amongst NMP’s & Hispanics, but still losing them. 

·       The most viable candidate the Republicans have in Florida for a general election isn’t even going to be on the ballot.  As shocking as this may sound coming off his crushing defeat in the primary, Marco Rubio shows signs of life amongst Hispanics and NMP’s which no other Republican we tested can claim.  Rubio holds a 1-to-1 image rating (46/46) and remains right side up amongst NMP’s (+6), Hispanics (+6) , voters under 50 (+9) and millennials (+2).  In a hypothetical head to head, Rubio leads Patrick Murphy by 8% (49/41) and locks down all key sub groups in the ballot question.

During the weekend we also looked at likely Republican primary voters on a separate survey project and found Senator Rubio continues to enjoy soft, but high favorables amongst Republican primary voters at 67/29. Amongst primary voters who are very conservative, Rubio is +59 (77/18).

·       In the Senate race, Republicans actually enjoy a 2-point advantage in the generic ballot for US Senate. However, the entire field remains largely unknown and the only candidate who would beat Patrick Murphy (assuming he wins) as of today would be Senator Rubio. 

·       In this critical swing state, it is clear to us that Republicans continue to suffer substantial brand damage amongst all segments of the ascending electorate (younger voters, Hispanics & NMPs) and this presidential campaign has clearly exacerbated these attitudes.  Perhaps the best news for Republicans may be that the Democrats have selected a candidate who up to this point has really failed to launch and isn’t remotely generating the enthusiasm they’ve enjoyed in their two past campaigns.  The bottom line is this electorate is volatile, and in some segments, downright hostile. Voters don’t like the direction this country is headed in, nor do they like their current options for who should fix it.

[Last modified: Monday, May 2, 2016 11:56am]


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