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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Florida poll: Mano a mano, Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio 52% to 38%



A new Feb. 24-25 robo poll of likely Florida Republican voters by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Donald Trump leading with 45 percent support, followed by Marco Rubio with 25 percent, Ted Cruz with 10 percent, John Kasich with 8 percent and Ben Carson with 5 percent. The firm also looked at what happens if the field narrows to two, and Trump still dominated. He led Rubio 52 percent to 38 percent, Cruz 56 percent to 25 percent, and Kasich 47 percent to 32 percent.

"Rubio's trouble doesn't end there," PPP said in a release. "His approval rating as Senator has cratered to a 31/55 spread, compared to a much more evenly divided 41/44 when we last polled the state in September. Only 40% of voters in the state think he should continue with his campaign, compared to a 44% plurality who think it's time for him to drop out. And he narrowly trails both Hillary Clinton (45/43) and Bernie Sanders (44/42) in head to head general election match ups. Rubio's become quite unpopular at home over the course of his campaign."

PPP found 64 percent of Florida Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Trump and only 27 percent unfavorable. More than one in three said they might change their mind before the March 15 primary, but Trump's supporters were by far the most committed - with 79 percent saying they definitely will vote for him, compared to 54 percent for Rubio.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton led Bernie Sanders 57 percent to 32 percent. 

"The general election match ups in Florida are generally close," PPP said. "Trump is the only Republican to lead the Democratic hopefuls- he gets 46% to Clinton's 44%, and 47% to Sanders' 44%. Michael Bloomberg gets 10-11% as an independent- he takes pretty equally from Clinton and Trump, leaving Trump up 42-41. But in a scenario with Trump and Sanders he takes mostly from the Democrat, leaving Trump with an 11 point lead at 45/34. Clinton and Sanders do have wider leads over Cruz at 47/39 and 46/39 respectively." 

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[Last modified: Thursday, February 25, 2016 11:34pm]


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