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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Fresh poll shows Rubio and Murphy in tight race



Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy head into their expected general election matchup in a tight race, with a new poll showing Rubio taking 46 percent of the vote and Murphy 43 percent.

The margin of error for the Mason-Dixon poll is +/- 4 percentage points.

Rubio has generally led in hypothetical matchups but recent polls have shown that advantage narrowing. The Real Clear Politics average, which does not include the Mason-Dixon survey, has Rubio up more than 5 percentage points.

Rubio and Murphy are poised to easily win the Aug. 30 primaries., the Mason-Dixon poll shows. Rubio holds a 61%-22% lead over Carlos Beruff. Murphy leads Alan Grayson by 55%-22%.

In the general election, Rubio leads among Republicans (80%-9%) and Independents (47%-40%), while Murphy is ahead among Democrats (76%-15%). Rubio also leads among white voters (53%-36%) and Hispanics (49%-41%), while Murphy has a wide advantage among African-Americans (79%-12%). Men favor Rubio by 50%-38%, while women back Murphy 47%-43%.

Rubio runs strong in North Florida (51%-39%) and Southwest Florida (52%-38%) and has smaller leads in Central Florida (49%-44%) and Tampa Bay (45%-39%). Murphy has the edge in Southeast Florida (50%-39%).

The poll was conducted August 22 through August 24, 2016. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

[Last modified: Thursday, August 25, 2016 10:08am]


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