Hillary Clinton went into Election Day leading Florida by 250k votes, and lost Election day by 360k
As more data becomes available from Florida's 67 counties, a clearer portrait is emerging of how Trump won America's biggest battleground state --- which after this election I will cease describing as a must-win for the GOP because thanks to Wisconsin and Michigan Trump would have won the election even without Florida. The pride of Sewanee, Steve Schale, crunched the numbers as does so well. Read his full analysis here, but here is a snippet:
Democrats went into Election Day with a bigger margin, having crushed the Republicans in early vote, by almost 260K votes. In fact, Clinton's 141K final margin over Trump in the core partisan markets was a few thousand votes higher than Obama in 2012.
Then we get to I-4, and this time, we look at it not as just as the counties on I-4, but every county in the two media markets. Going into Election Day, I-4 was pretty balanced, with Trump holding a 11K vote lead. But on Election Day, Trump won by 242K votes. In other words, 95.5% of Trump's total margin in the Tampa and Orlando media markets came on Election Day. In total, Trump won 59% of the two-party vote in the Tampa and Orlando media markets on Election Day.
And of those 242K votes, 200K of that margin came from the non-urban counties in the media market, in other words. Just on Election Day.
And while it is true that Republicans always do better on Election Day, his Election Day "improvement" particularly in the Tampa media markets far exceeded Romney.
For example, in Pasco, his vote share was 7.69% higher on Election Day than in Early Vote, where as Romney was 2.59% higher, or 5.1% greater than Romney. In Polk, he was also 5.1% higher, Seminole 5.1%, Sarasota 5.4%, and Pinellas 7.2%. We saw similar things in the outlying counties in the Palm Beach market, where in St. Lucie, his vote share was 11.1% higher on Election Day, a 5.2% increase on Romney, and in Martin County, where his Election Day improvement was 6.3% higher than Romney.
TargetSmart,com CEO Tom Bonier (@tbonier) has tweeted his noted some of the startling details as wel. For instancel:
So, in just ONE county (Miami-Dade), Clinton entered Election Day with a 131k vote margin larger than Obama did in '12. Yet still lost.
The EV/VBM results do show that Dems in the panhandle crossed over HEAVILY for Trump, which was likely indicative of issues elsewhere