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From the staff of the Tampa Bay Times

Meet the Florida consultant who nailed the 'hidden Trump vote' prediction

Adam Goodman


Adam Goodman



A fairly small handful of pundits and politicos correctly predicted that Donald Trump would defy the polls and beat Hillary Clinton, but one Florida operative who did -- and repeatedly said so publicly -- was Tampa-based media consultant Adam Goodman.

"If Trump is within a few points of Clinton in the polls going into Election Day, he will become president of the United States, leaving experts scrambling for explanations, and pundits grasping for cover, as the story becomes the stuff of political legend."

Here's how others saw the race at the end:

Election Day:

RealClearPolitics final polling average: Clinton 45.5%  Trump 42.2% (USA Today)

Frank Luntz (Fox News pollster): “In case I wasn’t clear…Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States”

New York Times: “Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance of winning”

Days Before the Election:

Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton’s “win probability...“98-99%”…if Clinton doesn’t win, it will be a giant surprise"

Nate Silver (Silver’s 538 Group): “71.4% chance Clinton wins the Presidency”

Matthew Dowd (ABC News pollster): “a 95% chance Clinton wins…she’s going to win by more than 5-million votes”

Reuters: “Clinton has a 90% chance of winning”

[Last modified: Friday, November 11, 2016 2:16pm]


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